Portland is on their way to South Beach to take on the Maimi Heat at 4:30 PM PT. We’ve recently saw this matchup in Portland two weeks ago. That game ended in a blowout victory for Miami, but this game still can be close. With Jimmy Butler back on the court and Portland’s injury woes continuing, this game could be more the same. With the books thinking the same thing, I’ll break down the game for the best value lines you can still grab.
Kris Murray Questionable
Robert Williams III Questionable
Anfernee Simons Questionable
Donovan Clingan Questionable
Matisse Thybulle Out
Josh Richardson Out
Dru Smith Out
Tyler Herro Questionable
Kevin Love Probable
With such a recent game to look back to, it’s easy to see why this game is lopsided on the books. Portland was dominated at home by a Miami team without Jimmy Butler. Tyler Herro was a force that game, knocking down shot after shot. Portland couldn’t keep up with the Miami pace, leaving them well behind by the time the fourth rolled around.
Tonight should be more of the same. With the oddsmakers setting the spread at 10.5 points, they’re hedging on Portland at least doing a little better tonight, which is possible. The Blazers did pick up a nice win over the Bulls on Sunday with some excellent gameplay out of Scoot Henderson and Deni Avdija. If Portland can get another game like that out of Scoot, they’ll be in a decent position even if Anfernee Simons is out.
Miami, on the other hand, despite having Jimmy back, hasn’t been excelling. They have lost six out of their last ten games. They did pick up a big win over the Spurs, with rookie center Kel’el Ware having a career-high. Miami can’t sleep on Portland tonight. They have to come out early and take the wind out of their sails. If they allow Portland to have hope, this young team can come together on runs.
Overall, Miami will likely win in another blowout.
Moneyline: POR (+390) / MIA (-520)
Total Points: 221.5
Spread: +10.5 POR (-108) / -10.5 MIA (-112)
This money line is a stay-away. With the Heat such a favorite, there is no value left on the line. If you’re thinking about taking Portland at nearly +400, they might surprise us. I wouldn’t hold my breath, though. Miami is very likely to win this game and take the money line.
Portland has been scoring more in its last few games, so the overall points total is appealing. This line will likely depend on how effectively Portland shoots the three. I expect Miami to score well above the 110-point mark, so this line will entirely depend on Portland's scoring ability. With Miami not being a defensive juggernaut this year, they will likely score in the 105 range tonight, so this should be a close line.
The spread seems large, but it's about right, considering Miami is at home and capable of blowing Portland out. I would take the Miami spread tonight. They’ve been a strong team, and Portland on the road hasn’t been impressive.
Tyler Herro Over 22.5 Points (-115)
The last time these teams played, Portland couldn’t guard Herro at all. He ended up scoring 32 points in an easy blowout. I expect nothing less than that tonight, as he’s been the dominant force for the Heat on offense this year. Even with Jimmy taking some of the shot attempts, Herro will likely be the go-to scorer tonight.
Deni Avdija Over 26.5 Combined Points + Rebounds + Assist (-115)
Avdija has been Portland’s best all-around player. He’s been an excellent rebounder while his scoring numbers continue to improve. Sitting at 26.5 for the combined PRA line, he could easily hit that. In his last game, he had 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists, which would easily pass this line. I think he’ll be a big factor on both ends of the floor tonight, which has him in a great spot to hit this line!
Deandre Ayton Under 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
Ayton may be one of the few Portland centers active today if Rob Williams doesn’t play. With Clingan still nursing an ankle injury, Ayton will likely have a bulk of the center minutes tonight. However, I don’t see him grabbing the most boards. Especially with Bam and Ware out there, Ayton might be bullied down low, leaving the rebound up to the forwards. Considering how many boards Avdija has been snagging, I don’t see Ayton getting over 10 tonight.
Jimmy Butler Over 1.5 Turnovers (+160)
Jimmy isn’t known for turning the ball over, but Portland has solid defensive wings. If Camara and Avdjia can stay in front, he may be prone to errors. With the line so low on turnovers, it’s tempting to take it just for the matchup!