Despite the recent drama surrounding the Heat, the team has been trending up. Tyler Herro has been the key. He’s been the unquestionable offense leader and putting up all-star numbers, currently averaging 24 points a game on some impressive shooting splits.
The rest of the team has been hit or miss. Bam Adebayo has inexplicably fallen off as the team’s defensive leader. His at-rim defense has completely collapsed. Pair that with his field goal percentage nearly falling off 10% from this career average; it’s safe to say something is up with Bam.
Luckily for the Heat, their rookie center, Kel’el Ware, has been a hit. His ability to score inside and even hit threes while rebounding well has been crucial. He's already seen his role expand a couple of times which is a great sign.
This team is definitely in a transition year, but they’re still okay. They did manage to beat the Lakers by 41 the last time they played, so they can still destroy good teams.
However, going on the road to LA without Jimmy might produce a slightly different outcome. To beat LA again, they’ll need the young guys to step up tonight. Players like Jamie Jaquez, Nikola Jovic, and Kel’el Ware will have to make a difference.
I’m skeptical of that happening, though. As good as Herro has been, the Lakers will be a challenge. With LeBron and AD likely to play, you can bet they’ll want to beat Miami after getting embarrassed.
If Bam plays, I expect the Lakers to come in full strength and attack him. With LeBron and AD's size advantage, he could be their biggest weakness tonight. Ware might be a little better if Bam doesn't play, but still, a rookie taking on two Hall of Famers in the post isn’t ideal. Unless LAL shoots horribly from the field, which is very possible, I think Miami gets an L tonight.
The Lakers have been one of the most challenging teams to predict in the West. With LeBron and Anthony Davis, they have moments of greatness, but the rest of the team is inconsistent. With so many young players taking on significant roles on the team, it’s not exactly their fault. The Lakers have tried to correct this by moving Russell for Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton, but the results are mixed so far.
Their latest struggle has been protecting the rim from athletic guards. In their last two losses to the Spurs and Rockets, they allowed the guards to torch them inside. Some obvious issues with the point of attack defense still need to be addressed.
Beyond that, this team doesn’t have much flexibility. They either win off the efforts of AD or LeBron, or they lose. There have been far to few games where the rest of the Lakers rosters step up in a win.
However, in tonight's matchup, they should have a chance. Even though they got blown out on the road, the Heat aren’t the same team. Butler won’t be available tonight, and Bam has continued to diminish. The biggest threat to the team will be Tyler Herro, who torched them in their last matchup but, with no Jimmy, will probably get far more defensive attention.
For the Lakers to win, they’ll need to do a few things. The first of which is to win the rebounding battle. In their loss to the Heat, there was a 16-rebound disparity between the teams. The Lakers have to prevent the Heat from getting easy second-chance points and possessions. Secondly, they need to guard the perimeter better. They let Miami shoot over 50% from three in their last game. The Laker’s defenders need to stay glued to their man, especially Herro.
If they can tighten up the rebounding and perimeter defense, they’ll have a great shot in this game.
Lakers Injuries:
LeBron James Probable
Jalen Hood-Schifino Out
Dorian Finney-Smith Doubtful
Anthony Davis Probable
Bronny James Questionable
Miami Injuries:
Kel’el Ware Probable
Bam Adebayo Questionable
Jimmy Butler Out
Spread: +5 MIA (-105) / -5 LAL (-115)
Total Points: 214.5
Moneyline: MIA (+180) / LAL (-218)
Anthony Davis Over 25.5 Points (-105)
LeBron James 40+ Combined Points + Rebounds + Assist (+100)
Jamie Jaquez Jr. Over 5.5 Rebounds (+110)
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Made Threes (-135)