Portland has been on a mild upswing lately. This team has still shown plenty of struggles and is far from anything tangible, but it’s been a glimpse of improvement for Portland fans.
The real change has been Anfernee Simons and Deni Avdija. Both have been upping their game. Simons has finally been playing with more confidence, and it shows. He’s been attacking the rim, hitting his jumpers, and overall, been much improved since the first two months of the season.
Deni has been the real surprise, though. He has taken a leap, and his shot has begun to fall consistently. He’s also been one of Portland’s best defenders. With Jerami Grant still out for this game, Avdija will likely have another opportunity to show off tonight.
Portland is still a very flawed team. The roster doesn’t have a single player you could call a star, and the inconsistency is painful. However, they can get the best of better teams if they’re allowed. Just ask the Bucks, who lost to Portland last week at home.
This matchup against the Mavericks will be challenging. With Kyrie and Luka out tonight, it’s hard to say who will score. Washington has taken over some of those duties, but this Mavericks roster is tricky now. Without their stars they’re still dangerous for a team like Portland.
Portland may struggle to stop the Mavericks tonight if they’re allowed to get out in space. Grimes might be the biggest threat. The way he has played since Kyrie went down, this Portland backcourt could be in trouble. Pair him with Klay, and there is a strong chance both could score over 20 tonight.
However, there is some reason for optimism from Portland. Facing the Mavericks without Luka and Kyrie greatly narrows the talent gap. In many ways, Portland is the more talented roster coming into tonight’s game.
To win, Portland will need to score efficiently while limiting turnovers and second-chance points. The second-chance points might be the most critical key to the game. Since Kyrie went down, this group has been attacking the offensive glass, even grabbing 21 offensive rebounds against the Cavaliers a few days ago. Portland will need to box out and secure the rebounds without giving the Mavericks extra possessions.
Overall, I have faith in Portland tonight. They have the momentum from the last couple of games, and they’re playing some of their best basketball. It will entirely be their game to lose tonight if they play sloppily and allow this banged-up Mavs to steal it.
Dallas is down right now. Losing both of their top scorers to injury, Kyrie and Luka are still out tonight. Without those two, the Mavs have struggled to find wins. They have only won four of their last ten games. Dallas picked up a much-needed win over the Lakers on Tuesday, but things are bleak.
Kyrie is expected to return to play soon, but an exact timeline hasn’t been released. The role players will need to step up in this matchup.
Quentin Grimes has been leading the charge in scoring lately. He has averaged 17 points a game over the last 5 games on solid shooting splits.
Beyond Grimes, Washington has been the other name popping up at the top of box scores. He’s also been averaging 17 points a game and 6 rebounds over the last 5 games. However, one name I expected to see take a more significant role hasn’t yet. Klay Thompson has remained relatively quiet despite the dramatic increase in shots available. Despite increasing his shot attempts, he’s shot 37% from the field in the last 5 games. The future Hall of Famer might feel a little more comfortable tonight as he’s torn the Blazers to pieces many times over his career.
For the Mavericks to have a chance in this game, they’ll have to play fast and physically. They’ll need to bully this undersized, weak backcourt on Portland while the frontcourt attacks the offensive boards. They'll be sitting pretty if they can force Portland into mistakes and capitalize with second-chance points.
However, they’ll also need the three-pointer to be hitting tonight. With Dereck Lively II as their only healthy center, they may struggle into the paint. Especially with Clingan out, Robert Williams III might see much more time tonight if available. If so, the Mavericks will have to live with jumpers.
The Mavericks are still in a highly vulnerable position. They’re lacking so much scoring, and their role players are unlikely replace it every night. This game will be Portland’s to lose, so all Dallas has to do is play firm.
It still feels like Portland will have the advantage tonight. Even though the books disagree, I think this game is well within Portland's reach to steal on the road!
Blazers Injuries:
Matisse Thybulle Out
Donovan Clingan Out
Jerami Grant Out
Mavericks Injuries:
Daniel Gafford Questionable
Luka Doncic Out
Kyrie Irving Out
Dante Exum Out
Spread: +8 POR (-115) / -8 DAL (-105)
Total Points: 220.5
Money line: POR (+260) / DAL (-325)
Deni Avdija Over 15.5 Points (-110)
Derek Lively Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110)
Scoot Henderson Over 4.5 Assists (-115)
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 Threes Made (-168)