The UFC is back with a huge card taking place in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena. We will see two title fights on Saturday night with Alexandre Pantoja defending the Flyweight crown against one of the hottest prospects in the UFC, Joshua Van.
We will also see Merab Dvaalishvili defend his Bantamweight belt against long-time contender Petr Yan. Today, I will break down my 3 favorite bets for this weekend’s fight card. Let’s get into it!
This should be a very fun fight between two guys on opposite ends of their careers. Cejudo is a former double champ and arguably one of the greatest flyweight/bantamweights of all time. Triple C took out the likes of Mighty Mouse, TJ Dillashaw, and Domick Cruz back in his day, but now he has lost three straight fights. However, all to great opponents in Aljamain Sterling, Merab, and Song Yadong. Talbot has yet to fight anyone of that caliber in his career, but he did manage to redeem his first career loss last time out against a tough Felipe Lima.
This fight, to me, comes down to Cejudo’s ability to keep Talbot down. Cejudo is an elite wrestler, and he will certainly be going for and landing takedowns. However, he may struggle to hold Talbot down due to his long frame.
Talbot will have the advantage of youth and athleticism on their feet, which may hurt Henry, but I think this fight is really going to come down to fight IQ. Cejudo is a great MMA mind, however, his body sometimes is what holds him back now. I think even if Henry loses, he takes a round in there and makes this a good fight. We’ll take Henry Cejudo +3.5
MY PICK: Henry Cejudo +3.5 (-120)
Alexandre Pantoja will be seeking his 5th straight title defense in this fight, and we are in for a good one. Joshua Van rose through the rankings at a crazy pace, going 8-1 in his UFC career, and he is only 24. His last three fights have been really impressive wins over Rei Tsuruya, Bruno Silva, and former title challenger Brandon Royval. But now he has to face Pantoja, who may just be the greatest Flyweight of all time in the UFC.
I see this fight really just leaning in favor of Pantoja. Van is really dangerous on his feet, but he is ultra-aggressive, and Pantoja will use that to his advantage on his takedown attempts. Pantoja is also a very solid striker, but he needs to fight smart and avoid long exchanges in the pocket.
Van hits like a truck. If this fight does end up on the ground, I think Pantoja will dominate there and wear Van down. I do think it’ll go to a decision here, but Pantoja will take it.
MY PICK: Alexandre Pantoja by Dec +225
This will be a really fun rematch between two guys at the top of the weight class. Yan’s last loss was to Merab back in a 2023 Main event, where he dropped a Unanimous Decision. Merab threw 401 total strikes in that fight and outlanded Yan 202 to 87. He also attempted 49 takedowns, and while Yan did well to defend, only allowing 11, it was too much for him to get any offense going.
Since then, Yan has won 3 solid fights, but Merab has elevated his game to another level. I think this fight will go similarly to the last one, with a ton of pace out of Merab that doesn’t allow Yan to get into his flow boxing. Merab is a huge favorite, sitting at -410.
However, I think if we take the point spread, we have a great look at some odds, and if this fight is anything like the last, it won't even be close. Merab covered 15 points last time these two faced off and has covered it in 4 of his 5 title defenses, with the only outlier being Usman Nurmagomedov.
MY PICK: Merab Dvalishvili -5.5 -160