We have an amazing card, stacked from start to finish this weekend at UFC 320. The fights will be going down at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV, and we will see a rematch between current Light Heavyweight Champ Magomed Ankalaev and former champ Alex Pereira.
We also have a co-main event title fight between Bantamweights Merab Dvalishvili and Cory Sandhagen. Today, I will break down my 3 favorite bets for this weekend’s fight card. Let’s get into it!
This is going to be a fun one for the grappling lovers on the early prelims. Patchy Mix is a former undisputed Bellator champ who recently came over to the UFC. His debut didn’t go as planned against a tough Mario Bautista, so he has fallen to the Early prelims and is now fighting a guy making his UFC Debut. Wiklacz, much like Mix, is a grappler who has won 63% of his Pro fights by Submission, Mix is at 65%.
There are two options for this fight. One, it will be a classic grappler vs grappler stand-up battle where there is some slightly sloppy boxing and very few attempts at going to the ground. The 2nd option is that it turns into a BJJ match, and we get some interesting action.
I think in either scenario, Mix has the advantage over this guy and wins dominantly. He has fought a ton of high-level guys throughout his career, and I think he will have a bad taste in his mouth after his last performance. Give me Patchy Mix with the points to dominate this one.
MY PICK: Patchy Mix -3.5 -150
We are jumping from the early prelims to the Co-main event here, but I am so pumped for this fight. These are two of my current favorite fighters, and I am very interested to see how this plays out. Merab is the undisputed champ and has looked extremely dominant since winning the belt. He is now taking on Cory Sandhagen, who poses an interesting challenge. Sandhagen is a very well-rounded fighter with great standup and solid grappling. He is also 5 inches taller than Merab. However, that may play in Merab's favor as he tries to change levels.
Merab's last win over Sean O’Malley sealed the deal on that rivalry, and he now will take on some new challengers. Sandhagen is coming off a big win over Deiveson Figueiredo, but many people didn’t think he deserved this fight because of his loss to Usman Nurmogomedov the fight before.
I think this fight is going to be a classic Merab fight, and I really don’t think anyone can touch this guy. Sandhagen will throw some funk at him, but I think Merab's plan, straightforward pressure and wear him down, is too good to fail. Give me Merab to take this by a large margin and with the points. That will give us the best value.
MY PICK: Merab Dvalishvili -5.5 -120
For the Main Event, we have a very fun rematch between current champ Ankalaev and former champ Pereira. The last fight between these two was a bit of a snooze fest, with Ankalaev holding Pereira up against the fence most of the fight, and I kind of imagine this going a similar way.
Both of these guys are primarily strikers, but Ankalaev has better grappling in his bag. I am sure Pereira has trained a ton of grappling since losing his belt back in March, but we will see if he can apply it.
I do think this fight will be closer, and Ankalaev will be forced into more action, which gives Alex a fighter's chance. Pereira can KO anyone on a dime, so there is always a chance of taking this.
I think our best bet here is Alex Pereira to cover the +5.5 point spread. This way, we win if he KO’s him or if he just takes a round or two. I’m not sure he wins if this goes to a decision, but this is our safest value bet for this fight.
MY PICK: Alex Pereira +5.5 +100