The UFC returns to Perth, Australia, this weekend with one of the most unique cards of the year. Headlined by 13 fighters from either Australia or New Zealand, this event feels more like a national showcase, and I am all for it. This card is jam-packed full of veterans mixed with future UFC stars.
The crowd at RAC Arena will be electric, rallying behind their local stars, and while I don’t expect a full sweep for the “home team”, I do believe they will show out very well. For DFS and player prop bettors, this card offers several angles to target, especially with Underdog Fantasy rolling out a free Ryder Cup square to pair with MMA action.
The main event between Carlos Ulberg, one of City Kickboxing’s rising contenders, against former title challenger Dominick Reyes is the fight of the night. Ulberg has been on a tear, winning eight straight fights, the last two of which by unanimous decision.
Ulberg has shown the kind of composure and precision striking that defines his gym’s style. In those eight fights, he does have a submission under his belt, so could that be a sneaky angle with two strikers?
Reyes, meanwhile, is trying to keep his resurging career going. Following a four-fight losing streak, starting with Jon Jones, he has reeled off three straight wins, all coming by KO/TKO in or before the second round. Once considered the future of the light heavyweight division, Reyes has rebuilt his confidence.
Though Reyes has looked good, he did it against three sub-par fighters, especially when we talk about the top of the division. Dustin Jacoby is a nice win, but Anthony Smith was dead on arrival, and Nikita Krylov is a shell of himself.
Ulberg’s speed, volume, and defensive sharpness make him a stylistic nightmare matchup for Reyes, especially if this fight stays on the feet. Expect Ulberg to pressure with jabs, kicks, and combinations to rack up significant strikes in front of a supportive home crowd and get his hand raised.
The first Underdog DFS entry takes advantage of the Ryder Cup free square on Bryson DeChambeau at higher 0.00 points. That’s essentially a free leg to start your card. With the Bryson freebie included, this combo pays 3x, and even without it still returns 1.84x for a strong two-leg option.
Pair it with two plays from UFC Perth: Jamie Mullarkey lower 0.5 finishes against Rolando Bedoya and Carlos Ulberg higher 57.5 significant strikes versus Dominick Reyes.
Mullarkey has the edge in experience and durability, but isn’t a prolific finisher. He hasn’t won by finish since 2021, while Bedoya has yet to be finished in 18 pro fights. This makes the lower option on the finishing prop very appealing.
Ulberg, on the other hand, thrives on volume and should easily clear the 57.5 mark, as I truly don’t expect a quick knockout in this matchup. Ulberg has surpassed this mark in two straight and three of his last four fights, hitting 75, 98, and 81.
Reyes has not allowed this in his past four fights, but looking at his closer matchups that went deeper into the fights, he allowed Jiri to land 77 and Jones to land 104. I can see this being a back-and-forth striking match into the late 2nd/3rd, with volume on both sides.
The second play focuses on takedown totals. Andre Petroski higher 2.5 takedowns against Cameron Rowston makes sense given his relentless wrestling base and cardio. Going against a UFC newcomer in Rowston, I like Petroski to run him through the ringer on the mat. Petroski averages 3.21 takedowns/15 minutes.
In Rowston’s first DWCS match, he was taken down ten times by Torrez Finney. Petroski landed 3 takedowns on Dylan Budka, Josh Fremd, 8 takedowns to Wellington Turman, and then 4 takedowns against Hu Yaozong and Micheal Gillmore. Petroski has the pedigree to rack up takedowns in this one.
Pair that with Jake Matthews lower 1.5 takedowns versus Neil Magny. Matthews has a wrestling background but often struggles to chain attempts together. It has been nine straight fights Matthews has not landed 2 or more, going all the way back to February of 2020.
Magny’s length and clinch defense have allowed him to hold his opponents to 1 takedown or less in six of his last eight fights. He can typically neutralize opponents who try to take him down repeatedly. Matthews’s path to victory is getting this on the ground; Magny knows this. This two-leg combo pays out at 2.55x and offers solid value for bettors targeting stylistic matchups.