Happy Hump Day, fellow sports bettors! Tuesday was so-so for us on the MLB side of things. We went 2-2 to run our record to 111-92 on player props this season. The two winners were on the Brewers to win the series over the Braves, and Will Warren's under 2.5 earned runs.
The two losers were Garrett Crochet's Under 1.5 earned runs and Ryan Bergert's Over earned runs. It's time to get back in the green. Let's keep going strong with 3 player props for Wednesday, August 6. Best of luck, my friends.
SF at PIT - 12:35 PM EDT
This one's juicy, but a lot of the larger offshore markets have this in the -175 to -180 range, so that tells us there's plenty of value to be had in this -145 number. Ray has been the model of consistency for the G-Men all season long, as he's allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 17 of his 23 starts.
That's good enough for a winning percentage of 73.9% on this Under 2.5 earned runs line. Even at the juicy -145 odds, we only have to win 59.2% of the time to break even. That gives us a humongous implied edge of 14.7%.
Ray draws a pretty easy matchup today on the road against Pittsburgh. The poor Pirates have struggled to score runs all year long (29th in WRC+ vs lefties), and I don't think today will be any different. Give me the Under!
BAL at PHI - 12:35 PM EDT
I'm already on this full game Under at 8.5 runs, and I normally don't like to double up on games. That being said, I just can't resist this nice +140 number on one of the best southpaws in the National League.
Suarez was touched up for 3 earned runs against the Tigers last week, but this is a terrific bounce-back spot for him. His numbers against Baltimore aren't all that impressive, but the sample size of just 26 batters faced is pretty small. Suarez has one of the best hard-hit rates in baseball, mainly because of his changeup and sinker.
Baltimore has been struggling at the dish since the trade deadline, as they rank dead last in WRC+ over the last 7 days. Look for Suarez to dominate this Orioles club through at least 6 innings of solid work.
NYY at TEX - 2:35 PM EDT
Will Warren cashed this prop for us last night, and I feel pretty good about Mr. Rodon doing the same thing against this same Rangers lineup this afternoon. Rodon has a nice K-rate because of his nasty slider, and I think he'll use it to perfection today on the road in Texas.
Rodon's earned run numbers aren't fantastic, but he's still gone 13-10 to the Under overall this season against this 2.5 number. He's also stayed under this line in 7 of his 12 road starts this season. Texas is starting to come to life, but they haven't fared well against lefties this year.
The Rangers rank just 27th in WRC+ overall against southpaws on the season. Look for Rodon to give up a run or two, but he'll still turn in a pretty stellar performance for the boys in pinstripes. Give me another Under!