Happy Hump Day, sports betting family! Tuesday was tough for us on the MLB side of things. We went 2-3 to run our record to 105-86 for player props on the season. Our full game Unders wound up going 1-0, and our strikeout props finished up at 1-3.
Seth Lugo cashed for us against Atlanta by the hook, and so did the Under in the Dodgers vs. Reds game. Unfortunately, we lost our earned runs prop by the hook on Yusei Kikuchi, who gave up three to the Texas Rangers.
Check out our three player props for July 30 below. Best of luck with all your Wednesday MLB action. Let's get to the plays!
BOS at MIN - 1:10 PM EDT
How about some day baseball to kick off this card? Not many folks have heard of Zebby Matthews, but I think he has the stuff to be an ace. The big righty hits 97 mph on the gun with relative ease. He also has a nasty slider and an above-average cutter.
Matthews is in great current form, as he struck out 7 through 6 innings of shutout ball against the Nats last Friday. This matchup against Boston is ideal for some Ks, as the BoSox have the 4th highest K-rate in MLB vs. RHP.
The Red Sox also have the 3rd-highest strikeout rate in baseball over the last two weeks. They also have four hitters who fan at least 24% of the time. Let's play the Over here with confidence, folks!
PIT at SF - 3:45 PM EDT
A lot of the trend bettors won't like this play because Webb hasn't hit 7 or more Ks very often this season. That being said, I love how well he matches up against this lackluster Pittsburgh lineup.
The Pirates have struggled to score runs all season long, and they have the 7th-highest K-rate in MLB against righties. They also rank just 28th against the sinker, which is Webb's primary pitch (he throws it 36% of the time).
Pittsburgh hasn't faced Webb this season, and I look for them to be in for a rude awakening on the West Coast this afternoon. Give me another Over, Scotty!
TB at NYY - 7:05 PM EDT
I picked up this alt line up at FanDuel because I just couldn't resist all of that plus money. Tampa Bay isn't a team I like to fade all that often, but they've been struggling to make contact lately.
The Rays have the 7th-highest K-rate in MLB over the last two weeks and the 3rd-highest over the last seven days. Warren has K'd 6 or more hitters in 8 of his 11 home starts this season. That's a pretty high hit rate for us to get a +144 price.
With the +144 odds, we only need to win 41% of the time to break even. Warren has racked up 6 or more strikeouts in 11 of his 22 starts (50%). That gives us an implied edge of around 9%, which is something I'll gladly jump on all day long. Let's put our Hump Day in the win column!