Welcome to the Saturday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on the Dodgers vs. the Red Sox and the Padres vs. the Cardinals.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Rays vs. Reds and Guardians vs. Royals matchups. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for each of these games on July 26. Best of luck, amigos.
TB at CIN - 6:40 PM EDT (Pepiot vs. Abbott)
This one sure is scary because it's being played at the hitter's paradise known as Great American Small Park. I know the ball flies out of this joint like crazy, but I still think this number is way too high. Both of these starting pitchers are capable of tossing five or six innings of shutout ball.
Ryan Pepiot takes the mound for the Rays, and he's really put things together nicely after a subpar start to his season. The young righty has excellent off-speed stuff, and he should be able to use it to keep this free-swinging Cincy lineup on its toes. The Reds have the 7th-highest K-rate in MLB against righties, so Pepiot should be able to pitch his way out of some trouble if he has to.
The Reds will counter with another one of their dynamic lefties, Andrew Abbott. The young southpaw just made his first All-Star team a few weeks ago, and it was well-deserved. The 26-year-old does an excellent job of inducing soft contact, as he's ranked in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate.
Cincy's bullpen is kind of rough looking, but Tampa Bay has a ton of nice relievers. The Rays rank 3rd in bullpen K minus BB rate this season. It's also nice that the Reds rank just 27th in WRC+ over the last month. Give me the Under!
CLE at KC - 7:15 PM EDT (Bibee vs. Bubic)
Why in the world is this total so high? These two offenses have struggled to produce any semblance of consistency this season, so I was shocked that FanDuel opened this line at 8.5. As I'm often fond of saying, "this game has 4-2 written all over it."
Tanner Bibee will get the ball for Cleveland, and he's had a whole lot of success against this Royals team in his career. The young righty has a batting average of just .184 against this Kansas City roster through 115 plate appearances. The Royals have been hitting a little better of late, but they still rank just 27th in WRC+ this year against righties.
Kris Bubic will get the start for Kansas City on Saturday night, and he's put up some good numbers in 2025. The young southpaw has two breaking pitches that generate a ton of chase from opposing hitters.
Look for Bubic to use his slider and his sweeper to dominate this light-hitting Guardians lineup. Let's cash another Under! Happy Saturday, everybody!