The Philadelphia Phillies hit the road for a tough 3-game series against the New York Yankees, starting tonight in the Bronx. Both teams are sitting near the top of their divisions and looking to build some more momentum heading into August. With a close matchup on paper and a pair of inconsistent starters on the bump, this one has the makings of a sneaky-good betting opportunity that you won’t want to miss out on.
The first pitch is scheduled for tonight at 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium. The Yankees come in with a decent 56-46 record, good for 2nd place in the AL East and 4.5 games back of the Blue Jays. They're 30-19 at home, which spells some trouble for Philly. The Phillies, also 2nd in their division, sit just a half game behind the scorching hot Mets at 58-44, and they're exactly .500 on the road at 25-25.
On the mound for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker, who is currently 3-5 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He hasn’t been all that flashy, but he’s done a decent job keeping the Phillies in games, considering he spent most of the season in relief. Over 62.1 innings, Walker has allowed 9 HRs and struck out 53, showing more pitch-to-contact tendencies and relying on ground balls to get the job done. His ability to work around traffic will be key in a park like Yankee Stadium, where it’s a bit easier for hot bats to go yard.
Opposing him is Will Warren with a 6-5 record and a 4.91 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Yankee’s rookie has had ups and downs, racking up 117 strikeouts in 99 innings but also surrendering 11 dingers. His stuff plays, but command is still developing, and his ERA and WHIP show he hasn’t always gotten away with mistakes, which the Phillies will capitalize on. He’ll face a Philly lineup that doesn’t chase much and punishes hanging sliders.
This is the first meeting of the season between the Phillies and Yankees, but there’s plenty on the line for both of these powerhouses.
As of now, the Yankees are -158 favorites on the moneyline, with the Phillies listed at +129. The run line sits at Yankees -1.5 at +129 and Phillies +1.5 at -158. The total is set at 10 runs, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -105. That high total reflects both teams’ power and the warm summer conditions in New York. Given that Yankee Stadium sees an average of 9 runs per game, clearing 10 between the 2 clubs is not insurmountable.
There’s no question this Yankees team can mash, and when you take a look at the names, it’s easy to see why. They lead MLB in home runs and are 3rd in runs scored, averaging 5.2 per game. Aaron Judge has 37 home runs and 84 RBIs with a monster .345 AVG and .717 SLG. When New York gets 8+ hits, they’re 39-19 — meaning when the bats show up, they almost always win. Keep that in mind when you’re looking at Taijuan Walker early in the game.
But the Phillies aren’t slouches, either. They’re hitting .254 AVG as a team, same as New York, and are 36-8 when they score 5+ runs. Kyle Schwarber continues to be a nightmare for opposing pitchers with 34 dingers and a .564 SLG. He’s also hit a homer in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog against the Yankees. And, if you remember, he also won the ASG for the NL when he crushed 3 bombs in the first ever swing-off.
Trea Turner has been one of the most consistent bats in the lineup and comes into the series riding a streak of 8 straight games with at least one single at Yankee Stadium. Bryson Stott has also recorded a hit in 6 straight games versus New York. Those are the kinds of trends bettors love to see, and it shows that Philly is locked in on the Yankees.
From a team perspective, both clubs are evenly matched at the plate, but the Yankees have a slightly stronger pitching staff overall. Their 3.89 team ERA ranks 14th, and they lead the majors in OBA at .226. Still, Will Warren’s 4.91 ERA and 1.44 WHIP leave plenty of room for the Phillies to do damage early and try to hold onto the lead through the bullpen.
The Phillies’ staff has actually been better lately, with a 3.76 ERA over the last 10 games compared to 4.19 for the Yankees. Taijuan Walker doesn’t really rack up strikeouts, but he’s allowed just 9 homers in 62 innings — something that might limit New York’s power if he keeps the ball down and lets the fielders behind him do their job.
Momentum-wise, both teams are 5-5 in their last 10, but the Phillies have a slight edge. They’ve outscored opponents by 10 runs over that span, while the Yankees have only outscored theirs by one. New York also comes in after a loss, while Philly is 7-0 in games following a home defeat. That’s a trend that simply can’t be ignored when you’re putting money down on the game.
As we mentioned, Yankee Stadium is averaging just 9 runs per game, and the under has hit more often than not there this season. With two decent bullpens and starters who could exit early, the under 10 at -105 has real value opposed to the over. This field can always surprise us, but that’s the direction we’re going with it.
This feels like a toss-up on paper, but there’s value in the underdog here.
The Yankees have the better overall metrics and a true MVP candidate in Judge, but the Phillies are clicking in the right spots at the right time. Their lineup is getting production from stars and role players, which gives them depth, and Walker gives them a better shot at keeping the game under control than Warren.
Warren’s control issues against a patient Philly lineup could lead to early runs, and if the bullpen has to work overtime, that could swing the game in the later innings. With Philadelphia’s recent trends and the way they respond to losses, they have the clear edge in tonight’s showdown.
Phillies vs Yankees Prediction: Phillies 5, Yankees 4
Best Bet: Take the Phillies moneyline at +129
It’s the better value play, and Philadelphia has shown they can bounce back in spots like this. We feel that this game will be close, because it’s the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, but there are more factors than just that.