Happy Monday, sports betting family! The weekend was nice for us on the MLB side of things. We went 3-1 on Friday and 2-0 on Saturday to run our record to 97-75 on player props this season. We even picked up a couple of nice golf matchups in The Open Championship to make things even sweeter.
July has been kind to us so far, as we're sitting at 43-28 over the last 30 days for an ROI of 11.99%. Let's stay hot on Monday with 6 player props for July 21. Best of luck, my friends!
DET at PIT - 6:40 PM EDT
Why in the world is this sitting at plus money? I know Captain Jack has scuffled a bit on the road this year, but I don't think that'll matter against this awful Pirates lineup.
Pittsburgh has the 7th-highest K-rate in baseball against righties, and guys like Oneil Cruz often fan twice per game. Flaherty has given up too many long balls this season, but his strikeout rate is still elite.
The veteran righty is currently rated in the 88th percentile in K-rate, so it's easy to see why we expect him to cruise to 7 or more punchouts tonight in the Steel City.
BOS at PHI - 9:38 PM EDT
This is a pretty good price here on Big Zack's ALT line, as most sportsbooks have this at -170 to -200. This Boston team has been red hot at the plate, but Wheeler's stuff is 2nd to none this season.
Wheeler's career K-rate against this roster isn't too good, but I trust the soon-to-be Cy Young Award winner to get the job done at home. Boston has been making more contact lately, but they're still a team I love to fade against right-handed pitchers.
The Red Sox have the 4th-highest K-rate in MLB against righties. Wheeler's whiff rate currently sits in the 85th percentile, so I feel pretty good about him overpowering the BoSox.
LAA at NYM - 7:10 PM EDT
This Angels team continues to impress me, but they still strike out quite a bit. LAA has the 2nd highest K-rate in MLB vs. righties, so look for Senga to easily surpass this line tonight at home.
The Angels have lots of power hitters who swing for the fences, so Senga could use that to his advantage. Senga doesn't throw overly hard, but he has 7 pitches that break quite a bit. His off-speed stuff has been almost unhittable this season, as it ranks in the 98th percentile.
My only concern is that the Mets have been overly careful with Senga's pitch count, but hopefully they'll let him go at least 5 innings or more tonight.
SF at ATL - 7:15 PM EDT
Birdsong has a pretty low K-rate against this Braves squad (16%), but the low sample size of just 25 batters faced puts my mind at ease. Yes, I know this youngster started out in the pen this year and that he's only made 9 starts in 2025.
Even still, his median is 5 Ks, and he still found a way to register 5 punchouts against Atlanta back on June 6th. The Braves have been striking out pretty often of late. Atlanta has the 11th-highest K-rate this season against righties, but they have the 6th-highest K-rate over the last 30 days.
Birdsong has gone over this total in 6 of his 9 starts this season, so the plus money sure looks like a gift to me.
CWS at TB - 7:35 PM EDT
Baz has always had loads of potential, but he's been dogged by arm injuries for most of his young career. It's nice to see the young man putting together a solid season in the Rays' rotation.
He doesn't have an overly impressive K-rate, but his fastball has a lot of life and routinely touches 98 mph or higher on the gun. The White Sox should be a fairly easy matchup for Baz tonight at home.
The Pale Hose have the 9th-highest K-rate in baseball versus righties, and none of their hitters have ever seen Baz's stuff. The books are expecting 6 innings of work from Baz tonight, so that's enough for me to pull the trigger, even at this higher juice level.
A's at TEX - 8:05 PM EDT
This looks a little bit like a sucker line at first glance because Lopez registered 4 Ks on two separate occasions against the Rangers this season. However, a closer look into those box scores shows that one of those appearances was out of the bullpen and the other was a start that lasted only 2.2 innings.
Both of those outings against Texas were way back in April, so I'm not going to read a whole lot into either of them. Lopez has made 10 starts for the A's this season, and he's found 6 or more Ks in 6 of them.
The Rangers have also struggled to make solid contact against lefties (6th-highest K-rate vs LHP), so I'll take another shot on a plus-money Over.