Happy Friday, sports betting family! We hope you had a fantastic MLB All-Star Break. It's always good to take a few days off to recharge the batteries. I know we all missed our favorite pastime, but it was nice not to be checking scores relentlessly each day.
We're currently sitting at 92-75 on the year with our MLB player props. As for game totals, our full game under system we've been running is also still sitting pretty at 22-11. Let's buckle up for a nice stretch run before our focus turns to college football and the NFL once September rolls around.
Check out our 3 player props and best bet for July 18th below. Best of luck with all your weekend MLB action.
LAA at PHI - 6:45 PM EDT
I like Luzardo to put together another stellar outing on Friday night against this Halos squad. Los Angeles has been much better than some folks thought, but they've still been striking out like crazy all season long. The Angels strike out 28.2% of the time against lefties, which is the highest K-rate in the majors against southpaws.
Luzardo was in outstanding form before the All-Star Break, and I think he'll pick right up where he left off. He's fanned 7 or more batters in 4 of his last 6 starts, so current form is definitely in our favor.
Some early outs lines in the market are sitting at 17.5 with a bit of juice on the Over. That tells us that the books are expecting 6 or more innings from Luzardo. I think he'll get us 7 Ks rather easily. Let's play the Over!
SD at WSH - 6:45 PM EDT (Cease vs. Soroka)
This total is way too high for two starting pitchers that I like quite a bit. Dylan Cease is one of the top strikeout guys in MLB (94th percentile in whiff rate), and I think Mike Soroka is due for some positive regression in the 2nd half of the season.
Soroka's expected ERA is over 2 points lower than his actual ERA, so he's been the victim of bad luck so far this year. I could see him pitching a gem against a Padres offense that has underachieved all season long. San Diego ranks just 17th in baseball in WRC+ against righties.
Washington's offense isn't all that great either. The Nationals rank just 24th in WRC+ against righties. Their bullpen scares me, but not enough to keep me from pulling the trigger on this very attractive Under. Let's ride!
CIN at NYM - 7:10 PM EDT
I've been a pretty big Nick Lodolo fan for the last couple of seasons. The 27-year-old lefty doesn't throw very hard, but he's 6'6" with a funky delivery. This makes it incredibly hard for opposing hitters to pick up the ball out of his hand.
Everyone acts like this Mets team has a dynamic offense, but it's actually right at MLB average. New York ranks just 14th in runs per game and only 15th in WRC+ against lefties this season. They've also struggled quite a bit over the last month (22nd in WRC+ Last 30 days).
All of that makes me think Lodolo puts together a pretty strong outing here on the road. As a matter of fact, Lodolo has been a road warrior for the Reds all season long. He's given up 2 earned runs or fewer in 6 of his 9 starts on the highway.
HOU at SEA - 10:10 PM EDT
Walter burned me against the Rockies a couple of weeks ago, but I like his stuff quite a bit and think he'll make a decent starter in the big leagues. His expected ERA of 2.92 is a full run lower than his actual ERA, so he could be due for some positive regression in the 2nd half of the season.
Walter has gone over this strikeout total in 6 of his 7 starts this year. His chase rate ranks in the 93rd percentile, mainly because he gets lots of swings and misses on his nasty cutter. I was shocked that the books didn't open this line at 5.5, especially since Seattle Ks more against lefties.
The M's have the 8th-highest strikeout rate in MLB against southpaws, so Walter should get plenty of shots at racking up Ks. Give me the Over at this decent price to close the Friday card.