Happy Monday, sports betting family! The 4th of July weekend was nice for us on the MLB side of things. We went 3-1 to run our record to 85-66 on player props this season. Thursday was pretty nice at 2-1, and Friday was good as well at 1-0, with Michael Soroka getting just enough strikeouts to cash his over.
July has been kind to us so far, as we've hit 11 out of our last 12 selections. Let's stay hot on Monday with 3 player props for July 7th. Best of luck!
TEX at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT
This is more juice than I'd like to pay, but I've been on the Jake deGrom train for a couple of months in a row. With the current form he's been in, there's no reason to jump off now. deGrom owns a sporty 29.2% K-rate against this Halos lineup for his career, and none of these hitters have seen him this season.
Just in case you haven't played much MLB this season, let me clue you in on a not-so-hidden secret: The Angels strike out a ton no matter who is on the mound. LAA has the 2nd-highest K-rate in baseball against righties, and they have the 4th-highest strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
Asking deGrom to get 7 Ks may sound scary, but he's been a road warrior for us all season long. The veteran righty has racked up 7 Ks or more in 5 of his 7 starts on the highway in 2025. Give me the juicy Over!
TEX at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT
I'll take another juicy Over for $100, please, Alex. Kikuchi started off the year slowly, but he's been in excellent form over the last month or so. The hard-throwing southpaw drives manager Ron Washington crazy with his high walk rate, but he has the stuff to get punchouts and pitch out of jams.
Just how good has Kikuchi been lately? He's gone over this total in four straight starts, which is pretty impressive. Kikuchi also struck out 6 Rangers hitters back on April 15th, so we have that in our favor.
Texas isn't what I'd call a high strikeout team, but they do have the 12th-highest K-rate in MLB against lefties. It also doesn't hurt that the Rangers have struggled all year long to generate much offense against southpaws. Kikuchi should be able to work deep in this one and cash this Over.
PHI at SF - 9:45 PM EDT
I'm not going to lie. This line looks too good to be true. While that would normally scare me away from a play like this, I can't get past the fact that Sanchez struck out 12 Giants on April 17th.
San Fran has the 6th-highest K-rate in baseball this season, so I could see Sanchez turning in another masterful performance. The G-Men also have the 7th-highest K-rate in MLB over the last 14 days, so current form favors an Over in this spot.
Sanchez is mainly a ground ball type of pitcher, but he's been striking out more hitters this season than usual. The crafty lefty ranks in the 75th percentile in strikeout rate, and both his whiff rates (76th) and chase rates (77th) are solid. Give me a 3rd Over to close the Monday card. Let's ride!