There are few days more uniquely American than the Fourth of July! We get fireworks, family cookouts and of course, an all-day feast of Major League Baseball!
From the iconic Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on Coney Island to stadiums packed coast to coast, July 4th is a celebration, and I hope everyone reading this has an amazing weekend! Let’s jump right into some model plays for tomorrow’s slate!
Two red-hot offenses go head-to-head as Quinn Priester and Sandy Alcantara battle to slow down these offenses. In 11 starts, Priester has posted a 3.35 ERA, 0.297 wOBA, while allowing 4.5 hits/game. In 6 road starts, he has a 3.66 ERA in 39.1 IP, but this is more of a play on Milwaukee's offense vs Alcantara.
While Alcantara has been better at home, his ERA is still over 5 at home and almost 7 for the season at 6.98. He is catching Milwaukee at the wrong time, coming in hitting RHP 4th highest average, 7th highest OPS, 8th highest wRC+, and the two kickers that are selling me here are Milwaukee walks top 5 vs RHP while striking out the least.
With Alcantara sitting at a 17% K rate, xBA of .280, xERA of 4.91, and Milwaukee striking out 15% to RHP last 14 days, which is the least in baseball, I think he could have another rough outing. Only 4 of the last 25 RHP have gone a complete 6 innings against this Milwaukee offense, while 8 of the last 14 have allowed 3+ runs. Milwaukee is 9-2 in their last 11 games, 5-1 in their last 6 road games!
Not taking the Cubs at home on the 4th of July would be criminal. The crazy thing is they have only hosted a game on the 4th twice since 2018. The Cubs have won 2 straight at home on the 4th and have won back-to-back games the last 2 seasons.
Boy oh boy, is this a stinky starting pitcher matchup, but I will take the home team with the much hotter offense and a starting pitcher that has a solid history head-to-head. Miles Mikolas is on the bump for the Cardinals, bringing in a 4.7 ERA overall and, on the road, with a 0.342 wOBA on the road. The Cubs rank 1st vs RHP over the last 14 days in wRC+ and OPS, 3rd for the season, and 3rd in batting average over the last 14 days, so they're seeing the ball extremely well.
While I don’t love Colin Rea’s ERA of 4.37 overall and 4.53 at home, he has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 straight vs the Cardinals, allowing 1 or less in 3 of those starts. The Cubs rarely strike out vs RHP and can draw walks as they are top 10 vs RHP for the season and last 14 days. Cubs have the better bullpen ranking (top 10) and are a top 5 scoring team in late innings (innings 6-9), so take the Cubs at a price I don’t believe will be there long!
This total feels a touch too high given the arms on the mound and the trends at play. Tampa Bay sends right-hander Zach Littell to the mound, with a respectable 3.53 ERA on the season, 3.81 on the road. Yes, I talk about splits a lot because I am a capper who believes in splits matter for baseball, and there is enough data there!
Chris Paddack on the other side for the Twins has a 3.58 ERA, with a .275 wOBA at home. This under does feel scary as Tampa’s offense has been on a tear! They average 5.06 runs/game on the road, and while they may get here Paddack has seen the Rays once before this season and held them to 2 ER.
Zach Littell has seen the Twins 6 times since 2022, and even though rosters have changed a bit, he has allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of those games. He faced them back in late May and allowed 1 run in 6.1 beautiful innings of 3 hit ball. My model has this game Tampa 4 to Minnesota 3.48, with a projected total of 7.5, I have to take this under 9.5 getting 2 full runs!