Happy Hump Day, sports betting family! Tuesday was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 3-1 to run our record to 79-65 for player props on the season. Our full game Under was a stress-free winner on the Twins vs. Marlins game.
Our other plays went 2-1, with both Matthew Boyd and Yoshinobu Yamamoto getting us on the right side of the ledger. Check out our 2 best bets and three player props for July 2 below. Best of luck with all your Wednesday MLB action.
STL at PIT - 12:35 PM EDT (Gray vs. Keller)
I'm all about taking the Under in Pirates games this season, especially with an ace like Gray facing them. The Under is 47-37 in games involving Pittsburgh this season. Those are the type of metrics I can put money on.
We've made a boatload of units riding Unders in Pirates games this season, and there's no reason to stop now. Sure, the Pittsburgh bats have sprung to life recently, but they should be quieted today by Sonny Gray.
Gray is a veteran righty who consistently turns in quality starts. He's coming off a masterful complete game against the Guardians, and I think he shuts down the P'Rats in this afternoon's affair in the Steel City.
SD at PHI - 6:15 PM EDT (Cease vs. Sanchez) (Game 2)
I got this a few hours ago at Bally Bet for -114, but it's still quite playable at -125 over at ESPN Bet. I love that we're getting two ace-level pitchers in this one, with Dylan Cease facing off against Cristopher Sanchez.
Both of those young fireballers should be able to keep the opposing lineups at bay for Game 2 of today's doubleheader. I also like both teams' bullpens quite a bit. San Diego's bullpen ranks 5th in K minus BB rate, and Philly isn't too shabby either in that department (13th).
Dylan Cease has quietly become one of the most reliable righties in the National League this season, even though he gives up more homers than I would like. No, he still isn't a household name, but his 29.8% K-rate is one of the best in baseball. Cease hits 97 mph on the gun with relative ease.
On the flip side, Cristopher Sanchez has been in a great groove for most of the season, so I don't expect a ton of runs from the Padres. Give me the Under.
STL at PIT - 12:35 PM EDT
This looks to be about a full strikeout too low, at least according to my numbers. With Gray's high K-rate and Pittsburgh's free-swinging lineup, I made the line 6.5 for around even money. This is an outstanding matchup for Gray, who still has some nasty breaking pitches.
It also doesn't hurt that the Pirates have the 9th-highest K-rate in baseball against righties. They also have the 7th highest punchout rate over the last 14 days. If Gray has decent stuff today, he should cruise to a nice outing.
Gray's K-rate ranks in the 79th percentile, so he certainly has the stuff to dominate this afternoon. His slider should be on full display on Hump Day. Give me an Over!
LAA at ATL - 7:15 PM EDT
Why in the world are we getting this much plus money with a savvy old vet like Kikuchi? The Angels' southpaw has stayed under this line in 11 of his 17 starts this season. His nasty breaking pitches allow him to pitch out of jams, which is a nice asset with this type of bet.
Current form is also in Kikuchi's favor, as he's given up 2 earned runs or fewer in 9 of his last 11 outings. His walk rate does scare me, but this Braves lineup has struggled against lefties all year long. We'll play the Under with confidence at this plus money price.
HOU at COL - 8:40 PM EDT
I almost avoided this one because of the Coors effect, but Brown is still worth jumping on at this number. The Astros' ace has gone over this line in 9 of his last 12 starts, and there are K targets all over this Rockies lineup.
Colorado has 6 hitters who strike out more than 25% of the time, so there should be plenty of K opportunities for Brown, even in the thin Colorado air. Brown hasn't been as automatic on the road this season, but I'm betting he turns in a strong performance against this AAA Rockies lineup.