Happy Tuesday, fellow sports investors! Monday was rough for us on the MLB side of things. We went 0-3 to run our record to 77-64 on player props this season. It was just one of those awful nights where nothing seemed to break our way.
Chase Burns got baptized in his first MLB road start and only recorded one out against the Red Sox. George Kirby's Under K prop bit us by the hook, and the A's scored way more runs than we were expecting against the Rays to bust our game total.
It's time to shake it off and move one. Let's bounce back strong with 3 strikeout props for Tuesday, July 1st. Best of luck, my friends.
NYY at TOR - 3:07 PM EDT
Gausman has absolutely owned this NYY roster, as his lifetime K-rate is an outstanding 32.4% against them. He was roughed up by the Yanks back in April, so this is a great revenge spot for the Jays' veteran righty.
The 34-year-old still has one of the best splitters in the game when he has it working, and I trust he will in this afternoon's tilt against a division rival. Gausman's fastball still has plenty of life, and his slider is also a big reason for his high chase rate (80th percentile).
Six NYY hitters fan more than 24% of the time, and the team as a whole has the 2nd-highest K-rate in MLB over the last couple of weeks. Let's play the Over at plus money for some afternoon action.
CLE at CHC - 8:05 PM EDT
We're getting Boyd at a huge discount tonight at home, mainly because his K-rate against this Cleveland roster stinks to high heaven at just 9.4%. However, this is where context and nuance come into play. You can't just take certain stats at face value.
If you do a deep dive into the numbers, you'll see that most of Boyd's sample size against the Guardians is against two players (Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana) who never strike out all that much anyway. That still leaves 5 Cleveland hitters who strike out more than 24% of the time.
Boyd has been a nice surprise for the Cubbies, and although he's been a bit up and down from a strikeouts perspective, he's still gone over this line in 10 of his 16 starts. The veteran southpaw has also struck out 5 or more hitters in 5 of his 7 starts at home this season. The over looks good here.
CWS at LAD - 10:100 PM EDT
Yamamoto burned us last week by the hook against the lowly Rockies, but I'm going to try him again tonight at home. The White Sox have never seen Yama, and I think they'll have a rough time with his splitter. It's the main reason why his K-rate ranks in the 85th percentile in baseball.
The Pale Hose have the 3rd-highest K-rate in baseball on the road this season and the 5th-highest over the last 30 days. Three White Sox hitters fan more than 23% of the time. Look for Yamamoto to cruise in this one.