Welcome to the Saturday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on the Twins vs. the Tigers and the Padres vs. the Reds.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Phillies vs. Braves tilt at 7:15 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for June 27. Best of luck, amigos.
Oddsmakers are favoring Atlanta by quite a bit in this matchup, as the opening line priced the Braves as a -164 favorite at home in Truist Park. That's still where the price sits as we write this on Friday afternoon.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a moderate amount of scoring in this one. The number opened at 8.5 runs, which is kind of a surprise with two ace-level starter pitchers on the hill.
I've been a pretty big fan of Spencer Schwellenbach's since Atlanta brought him up from the minors last season. This young righty has six above-average pitches that he can pound the zone with at any time. The former Nebraska Cornhusker also hits 97 mph regularly with his 4-seamer, and he gets lots of extension for a guy that's only 6'1".
Just how dynamic has Schwellenbach been? His chase rate ranks in the 95th percentile, and he rarely walks many hitters. That's insane when you consider that still only 25 years old and still learning how to be a Major League pitcher. His splitter is also much better than last season.
"Schwelly" is coming off back-to-back starts against the New York Mets. He struck out a combined 12 hitters in those games, but he did give up six combined earned runs. All in all, though, Schwellenbach has given up three earned runs or fewer in 5 out of his last 6 starts.
Jesus Luzardo looked like a legitimate NL Cy Young award candidate earlier this season, but he's been getting lit up pretty badly of late. The young southpaw had a nice bounce-back start against the Mets last week, but before that, his June numbers were ugly.
I do like that Luzardo already pitched in Atlanta earlier this season, and that he had a lot of success in Truist Park. He pitched six innings against the Braves on April 10th and only gave up one run. The 27-year-old has one of the best sweepers in the game when it's working.
PHI at ATL - 7:15 PM EDT
The early weather reports from Atlanta say that the wind should be blowing in at Truist Park during the early evening hours. While that is never my sole reason for making a play, I do like the Under quite a bit in this matchup.
My numbers say that both Schwellenbach and Luzardo are above-average starters, and neither of these bullpens is all that terrible. Atlanta's bullpen has improved dramatically over the last few weeks, and they now rank 6th in reliever K minus BB rate. Look for a 4-3 final in this one. Let's cheer for some boring baseball on Saturday night.