Happy Thursday, fellow sports betting folks! Hump Day was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 3-1 to run our record to 75-60 on the season with player props. Both game totals got home, as the Pirates vs. Brewers and Nationals vs. Padres stayed under their respective game totals.
Our two strikeout props came out at 1-1. Jake deGrom continued his dominance over the Orioles by fanning 7 batters to cash our Over. Our lone loser was on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who only struck out 6 Colorado batters to burn us by the hook.
Let's stay hot on Thursday with a player prop and a strikeout props parlay. Enjoy the daytime baseball, and best of luck with all of your picks today!
TB at KC - 2:10 PM EDT and LAD at COL - 3:10 PM EDT
I've never tried an Under parlay with strikeout props, but figured it was a good time to give it a shot with the very light Thursday card. Shane Baz has been pitching a lot better lately, but he's still struck out fewer than 6 hitters in 5 out of his last 7 starts. The young righty draws a tough matchup against Kansas City this afternoon on the road.
The Royals' offense has been a major disappointment, but they're still making contact at a very high level this season. KC has the 2nd-lowest K-rate against righties this season, and they have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB over the last two weeks. Baz faced the Royals back on May 1st and was only able to muster up 1 K in that outing.
Austin Gomber is finally back in the Rockies starting rotation, and he's a pitch-to-contact guy who doesn't throw hard enough to break glass. The veteran lefty is only hitting about 88 mph with his fastball this season, and his off-speed stuff hasn't looked up to par so far.
Gomber also draws a tough matchup against the mighty Dodgers at Coors Field. LAD does have a couple of K targets, but they still have 5 everyday players with K-rates below 20.2%. Let's cheer for a couple of early exits for Baz and Gomber this afternoon.
TOR at CLE - 1:10 PM EDT
I'll take a scary lunchtime Under for $100, Alex! Call me crazy, but I've made some nice coin betting on this Blue Jays team to put the ball in play. Toronto has the lowest K-rate in baseball against righties, and they have the 2nd-lowest punchout rate over the last 14 days.
I like Tanner Bibee, but his strikeout rate has dropped a full 6% from 2024 to 2025. That may not sound like a lot, but it's 30% less than a year ago (26.3% to 20.3%). The young righty's sweeper is still pretty good, but his five other pitches don't seem to have the same bite that they used to.
Bibee faced this Blue Jays team back on May 4th and only fanned 3 hitters. I could see a similar result this afternoon, especially since he's stayed under this total in all 4 of his starts against low K-rate teams.