Happy Tuesday, fellow sports investors! Monday was nice for us on the MLB side of things. We went 2-1 to run our record to 72-57 on player props this season. Our strikeout props parlay cashed for us, and we split our two plus-money Unders in the nightcap between the Nats and the Padres.
The Tuesday card looks promising, as we have 2 straight player props, two parlays, and a nice full-game total on tap. Best of luck, my friends.
A's at DET - 6:40 PM EDT and NYY at CIN - 7:10 PM EDT
The books aren't giving us any discounts on Skubal these days, but he's still worth putting in some parlays at 6+ occasionally. I love the reigning AL Cy Young winner to dominate this A's lineup tonight at home.
Skubal has been the model of consistency for going on three years now. His changeup is the best in the game, and both his slider and his sinker are nearly impossible to hit when they're working. He's hit 6 or more Ks in 13 of his 15 starts this season, so he's a no-brainer in this spot.
Carlos Rodon has made us a ton of cash this season, and he should be able to keep this Cincy offense at bay tonight. Pitching in the hitter's paradise known as Great American Ball Park won't be easy, but Rodon's slider is breaking a ton this season.
The Reds are just at league average in K-rate against lefties, so this matchup isn't perfect. However, I love that Rodon has hit this number in 6 of his 7 road starts this year. Let's cash this props parlay, folks!
PIT at MIL - 7:40 PM EDT and BOS at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT
Peralta has been kind of inconsistent this year from a strikeout perspective, but he's been heating up lately. The veteran righty has gotten 6 or more Ks in 4 out of his last 5 starts, and he draws a terrific matchup against a struggling Pittsburgh team tonight at home.
The Pirates just fanned a ton against Brewers starter Chad Patrick last night, and I don't see them doing any better against a bulldog like Peralta. Pittsburgh has the 9th-highest K-rate in baseball this season against righties, so look for Peralta to cruise.
I normally don't like to ask a guy to get 7Ks, but Crochet is the exception to all kinds of rules. The former Tennessee Vol has been lights out for Boston all year long, especially on the road. He's hit this K number in 7 of his 9 starts on the highway in 2025.
The Angels have struggled to put the ball in play this season, especially against lefties. LAA has the highest strikeout rate in MLB against southpaws. Look for Crochet to continue his usual dominance for us to put the final touches on this parlay.
TB at KC - 7:40 PM EDT
I get that this Rays offense has been hotter than a $2 pistol, but this total looks to be about a full run too high according to my numbers. Even though Tampa Bay has been smashing the ball, the Under is still 43-32 in their games this year. Kris Bubic should be able to keep the Rays in check for at least 5 innings, so that makes me feel pretty good about this play.
Bubic has been a nice surprise for the Kansas City rotation. The young lefty is 6-4 with a tiny ERA of just 2.12, which tells us that he's clearly comfortable in the starter role for the Royals. Bubic has a good K-rate of 25.7%, and he gets quite a bit of extension on all his pitches.
On the flip side, Taj Bradley has been kind of disappointing this season. That said, I still think the young fireballer has a lot of upside, especially when he gets his splitter and his curveball working.
Heck, even if Bradley doesn't have his best stuff, Tampa Bay has one of the top bullpens in baseball. The Rays have the 5th-best K minus BB rate among their relief pitchers.
The Under is 46-31 this season in Royals games.
The Under is 23-15 in Royals home games this season.
The Under is 15-13 in Rays road games this year.
TOR at CLE - 6:40 PM EDT
Let's see...so we have a pitch-to-contact starter facing a team that has the highest contact rate in baseball. Yep, I'll bite on the Under, even at the scary 3.5 number.
Allen did get 4 against Toronto back on May 2nd, but I don't see that happening again tonight. To say Allen doesn't have strikeout stuff would be a gross understatement.
His K-rate ranks in the 15th percentile, and his chase rate is even lower (13th percentile). He shouldn't be able to generate many Ks against this Jays lineup, which has 5 hitters with strikeout rates below 16%.
TB at KC - 7:40 PM EDT
This one is scary because Bradley throws hard, and he has decent stuff when he's on. That being said, Bradley faced Kansas City back on April 29th and was only able to muster two strikeouts against them.
Now, two months later, the books are saying he has to get five strikeouts to beat us. The Royals have been putting the ball in play pretty well against righties for over two years now.
They have five hitters at an 18% K-rate or below, so Bradley will have his work cut out for him here on the road. Give me another Under! Let