Welcome to the Saturday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on the Twins vs. the Mariners and the Yankees vs. the Dodgers.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Red Sox vs. Braves tilt at 4:10 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for May 31st. Best of luck, compadres.
Oddsmakers are favoring Atlanta by quite a bit in this matchup, as the opening line priced the Braves as a -160 favorite at home in Truist Park. A little bit of money has shown up for the home team, so the price now sits in the -165 to -172 range in favor of the Braves.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a moderate amount of scoring in this one. The number opened at 8.5 runs, but most shops are currently dealing 9 with some juice to the Under.
I've been a huge fan of Spencer Schwellenbach's since Atlanta called him up from the minors last season. This kid has six above-average pitches that he can pound the zone with at any time. The former Nebraska Cornhusker also hits 97 mph regularly with his fastball, and he gets outstanding extension.
Just how good has Schwellenbach been? His chase rate ranks in the 90th percentile, and he rarely walks many hitters. That's insane when you consider that still only 24 years old and still learning how to be a Major League starter. His splitter is also much better than last season.
The Red Sox will counter with a righty of their own in Walker Buehler. The 30-year-old has had a decent start to 2025, as his ERA is pretty impressive at 3.95 so far. Buehler only throws around 93 mph, so he has to rely on getting ground balls instead of strikeouts.
Boston was dealt a huge blow when superstar hitter Alex Bregman was sent to the injured list with a bad quad strain. That same type of leg injury put Bregman out of commission for 58 games back in 2021. Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran will have to pick up the slack with Bregman on the shelf.
The Red Sox have struggled a bit of late, as they're just 16th in WRC+ over the last two weeks. Even though the Braves' bats have come to life lately, they've been just mediocre this year against righties. They hit better at home, but I could see them having issues against Buehler.
BOS at ATL - 4:10 PM EDT
The early weather reports from Atlanta say that the wind should be blowing out at Truist Park during the afternoon hours. While that is a definite concern, I still like the Under quite a bit in this matchup.
My numbers say that both Schwellenbach and Buehler are above-average starters, and neither of these bullpens is all that terrible. Throw in the fact that Boston has been slumping lately, and I think we see a 4-2 Braves win on Saturday. Let's cash!