Happy Wednesday, sports betting family! Hope you found some winners on the Tuesday card. Welcome to our daily column of MLB betting picks, where we try our darndest to capture some closing line value by betting early.
Hopefully we can string together a few nice days in a row this week to close out a roller-coaster month of May. Check out our 3 early MLB best bets for May 28th. As always, make sure to select listed pitchers at whichever sportsbook you're playing these at.
SF at DET - 1:10 PM EDT (Roupp vs. Jobe)
This may sound crazy, but I think the wrong team is favored in this spot. Sure, Detroit has a much better offense overall, but they've been scuffling a bit lately. The Tigers rank just 22nd in WRC+ over the last 2 weeks, while the G-Men rank 19th.
I think Jackson Jobe has a bright future for the Tigers as a starter, but his walk rate of 12.3% shows that he still hasn't figured out his command at the big-league level. Jobe has lots of potential, but I trust San Fran starter Landen Roupp quite a bit more right now.
Roupp isn't overpowering, but he has one of the lowest hard-hit rates in the league at only 31.9% (92nd percentile). The 26-year-old righty does most of his damage with a nice sinker and an above-average curve. Give me the Giants at a slight dog price.
STL at BAL - 6:35 PM EDT (Mikolas vs. Povich)
Baltimore still scares the living daylights out of me, but I think they get the job done here at home. I played -110 at open and would still play it up to -140 or so. I've just never been a big fan of Miles Mikolas.
The veteran Cards righty has a good BB rate, but his stuff is nothing special. Mikolas has a nice ERA of 3.51, but his expected ERA is almost a full run higher at 4.35. That means that the regression monster is hiding under the bed.
The O's bullpen has been disappointing, but I still have them ranked 18th in baseball. That's nothing to write home about, but it's still better than the Cardinals, who rank 23rd. Baltimore also hits righties a whole lot better than St. Louie hits lefties.
ATL at PHI - 7:07 PM EDT (Smith-Shawver vs. Wheeler)
Here's another good price I snagged at the open, and I'd still play it up to -180 or so. I know this is a heated rivalry, but getting Big Zack Wheeler at anything under -200 always piques my interest. He's owned this Braves roster to the tune of only a .216 expected batting average through 305 plate appearances.
AJ Smith-Shawver has looked better than I thought he would so far in 2025. That being said, this is a tough spot for him in a rowdy Philly environment. I could see the likes of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber getting to him a bit early in this one.
I have these two offenses pegged at just about even against right-handed pitching, so there's no real edge to be found there. However, I think the Fightin' Phils have a much better bullpen. Let's drink the juice and play Wheeler and Philadelphia here!