Happy Tuesday, sports betting family! I hope all of you had a nice Memorial Day to remember those who paid the ultimate sacrifice for us to live in a free country. We had a rough MLB week last week, as we finished up at 6-8. We were even all week long, but a bad Friday and Saturday stretch hurt us.
It's been a rough go of it this year after two straight profitable campaigns, but we've still got 67% of the MLB season left to turn things around. Let's get right on Tuesday with a best bet and two player prop parlays for May 27th. Best of luck, my friends.
STL at BAL - 6:35 PM EDT
Sugano has stayed under this total in 60% of his starts so far this season. The -130 juice isn't ideal, but we only have to win this wager 56.5% of the time to break even. This means we have an implied edge of 3.5% with this Under on Sugano.
I know we've lost a lot of heartbreaking Unders by the hook this season, but we've still gone 18-13 with them for a modest profit. That's enough for me to stick with them, even though the losses are painful.
The matchup itself makes me like this Under even more, as Saint Louis puts the ball in play at a high rate against righties. The Cards have the 3rd-lowest K-rate in baseball against RHP, so give me a sweaty Under to kick off our Tuesday card.
SF at DET: 6:40 PM EDT and MIN at TB: 7:05 PM EDT
I don't know what's gotten into Logan Webb, but he's turned into a strikeout machine after being pretty much a ground ball pitcher for most of his illustrious career. Most hitters have had trouble making even the slightest bit of contact against his sinker and his sweeper.
Detroit has one of the best offenses in baseball, but they tend to strike out quite a bit. The Tigers have the 5th-highest K-rate in baseball against righties, so look for Webb to rack up at least 5 for us tonight.
Faithful readers of the column know that I've had a man-crush on Joe Ryan for the past couple of years. His stuff is electric, and he always seems to find 5 of 6 strikeouts even on his worst days. Tampa Bay has some capable hitters, but they have the 8th-highest K-rate against righties. Ryan should cruise his way to at least 5 strikeouts.
CWS at NYM: 7:10 EDT and NYY at LAA: 9:38 EDT
Megill has been one of the biggest surprises in the National League to me this season. He doesn't work deep into games, but he's been striking out hitters left and right. The big righty's K-rate ranks in the 91st percentile, so I don't think he'll have any problem amassing 5 punchouts for us against the Chi-Sox.
Speaking of the Pale Hose, they have the 7th-highest strikeout rate against righties this year. They've also struck out 27.8% of the time against Megill collectively. This portion of the wager should be relatively easy.
I know the Angels have played much better of late, but they still strike out quite often. LAA has the 2nd-highest K-rate in baseball against lefties, so they could have a hard time tonight against Carlos Rodon.
The former Cy Young Award winner has been slicing up hitters like crazy with his nasty slider. Look for Rodon to feast against the Halos to close out our Tuesday card. Let's get it!