Happy Saturday, baseball betting compadres! I hope your Friday treated you with lots of winning tickets. Welcome to Rivalry Weekend in Major League Baseball. We'll be treated to some ferocious matchups like the Subway Series between the Mets and Yankees and the Ohio Cup between the Reds and Guardians.
I love betting on the opening lines for the next day's games as soon as they are posted, which is at about 2 PM Eastern Time the day prior. Other intriguing series that are going down this weekend include the White Sox at Cubs, Nationals at Orioles, and Cardinals at Royals.
Check out our 3 MLB early picks for Saturday, May 17th. Let's cash these, my friends. As always, make sure to select listed pitchers at whichever sportsbook you're playing these at. Best of luck!
HOU at TEX - 7:05 PM EDT (Blanco vs. Mahle)
We got beat betting on Houston on Thursday night, but I'm not going to let that deter me from jumping on them once again at a pretty sexy price. Ronel Blanco has one of the best young arms in the game, and I don't see him having any real trouble with this subpar Rangers lineup.
Blanco has an expected batting average allowed of just .222 against this Texas roster through 75 plate appearances. The big righty has been especially unkind to Jonah Heim and Josh Smith. I also love that Blanco is only allowing a 29.2% hard hit rate so far this season.
Houston has, by far, the better bullpen in this matchup. The 'Stros rank 4th in K minus BB rate, while the Rangers rank just middle of the road at 15th. Houston has also been hitting the ball better of late, and I think Jeremy Pena could tee off against Texas starter Tyler Mahle.
ATL at BOS - 7:15 PM EDT (Holmes vs. Giolito)
I'm going to fade my favorite team for the 2nd night in a row. It pains me to do it, but I just can't trust this Braves offense until Ronald Acuna Jr. finally comes back and puts more fear into opposing pitchers.
Atlanta's offense could have a hard time getting anything done against Lucas Giolito, who has looked pretty good after missing all of last season with an injury. At 6'6" and 245 pounds, Giolito gets plenty of extension on all four of his pitches.
Grant Holmes has pitched well at times for the Braves, but he struggles with command issues at times. That could come back to bite him, especially in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. Let's lay another cheap price with the hometown BoSox.
SEA at SD - 8:40 PM EDT (Hancock vs. Pivetta)
This is juicier than I would like, but I don't mind taking a shot with this Padres team. San Diego really doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, and they should be able to do some damage against Emerson Hancock. The young righty has given up an expected batting average of .312 so far this year.
On the flip side, I'm a big believer in Nick Pivetta. The big right-hander has a live fastball and two different curveballs to keep hitters guessing. I like how well Seattle has hit righties this year, but they've cooled off a bit over the last couple of weeks.
Even if Pivetta can't work deep into the game, I still prefer the Padres bullpen much more than the Mariners. San Diego has plenty of solid arms in its pen, so they'll have the edge in the latter innings if they need it.