The race for the prestigious Cy Young Award is in full swing right now. There are less than 2 months left in the MLB season, and already Twitter/X is abuzz with talk about who’s worthy of walking away with the award.
This accolade, given to the best pitchers in each league, honors those who dominate the mound in their respective leagues. This year, a mix of familiar faces and rising stars are making their case for the honor. Here’s a look at the top contenders for the Cy Young Award in both the American and National Leagues and the odds of them being picked for the award.
Cy Young Odds: -225
Tarik Skubal is emerging as a star for the Detroit Tigers and is currently the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award. With odds at -225, we think that’s an accurate portrayal of where he should be in the race for etching his name in history.
With a 2.57 ERA over 143.1 innings in 23 games, Skubal’s performance has been nothing short of impressive. Skubal’s 13-4 record goes to show his ability to command games and lead his team to victories despite the Tigers most likely not making it to the playoffs this year.
His combination of a high-velocity 4-seamer, a sharp slider, and even the occasional knuckle curve has made him one of the toughest pitchers to face. He’s definitely one pitcher that batters do not look forward to facing. Skubal’s breakout season not only puts him in the conversation for the Cy Young Award but also puts him at the top.
Cy Young Odds: +200
Corbin Burnes has been one of the most consistent players for the Baltimore Orioles.
With a CYP score of 124.8, this veteran on the mound has pitched 143.2 innings across 23 games and is still pulling off a stellar 2.63 ERA. His 12-4 record highlights his ability to keep the Orioles competitive in nearly every start as if they weren’t already.
Burnes’ love his cutter, which he throws around 45% of the time, but it absolutely stuns batters at the plate. His average fastball velocity comes out to 96.8, placing him in the top 10% of pitchers when it comes to speed.
We like Burnes a lot and it’s going to be a fairly close one between him and Skubal for the coveted award.
Cy Young Odds: +1000
Seth Lugo comes in 3rd in the AL regarding odds for the Cy Young; however, the odds seem a bit long. At least in our opinion.
He has been a workhorse for the Kansas City Royals, posting a 2.72 ERA over 155.2 innings in 24 games. If the Royals make it to the playoffs, which they might as a wild card, he’s going to be the anchor the team leans on.
Lugo's CYP score of 116.4 goes to show his importance to the Royals’ rotation. With a 13-6 record, Lugo relies on a total of 9 pitches, which is probably why batters have such a hard time getting on base and earning him a 1.05 WHIP.
His dominance and ability to consistently deliver quality starts make him a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award.
Cy Young Odds: +10000
Emmanuel Clase is making a powerful statement with his performance this season, but he’s still a long shot for the AL Cy Young. This is because closers don’t tend to get the award, though they can. The last closer to receiving the award was in 2003 with Éric Gagné.
Aside from that, the Cleveland Guardians’ closer has been nearly untouchable with a 0.69 ERA over 52.1 innings. Clase's dominance is reflected in his CYP score of 143.3, the highest among American League contenders.
His ability to shut down games has resulted in 33 saves over 53 appearances, showcasing his reliability and clutch performance.
Clase’s pinpoint control and devastating cutter make him a nightmare for hitters, which is why we still think he’s a contender for the trophy. If the competition from the starters weren’t as tough as it is, we think Clase would be a shoo-in.
Cy Young Odds: +110
Chris Sale’s comeback season with the Atlanta Braves has been nothing short of remarkable. He’s currently holding down the top spot in the running for the NL Cy Young Award, and when you look at his numbers, it’s easy to see why.
Posting a 2.71 ERA, the best in the NL, over 123.0 innings in 20 games, Sale has reestablished himself as one of the top pitchers in the league. That’s not something we typically see from pitchers that have been around this long.
With a 13-3 record and 165 Ks to his name, Sale’s dominance on the mound has been a significant factor in the Braves’ success as they fight for a wild-card seed.
His devastating slider and powerful 4-seamer have made him a starter that both lefties and righties absolutely hate going against.
Cy Young Odds: +200
One of the biggest stories in MLB this year is the legendary Paul Skenes. Being called up to join the Pirates rotation after a month into the season and he’s already in the discussion for the NL Cy Young is all you need to know about this young phenom. There's a really good chance he'll also get the Rookie of the Year.
He has a 6-1 record with a 1.99 ERA and 107 strikeouts. Combine that with his eye-popping 0.94 WHIP, and then you can see why that’s impressive, considering he was drafted just over a year ago.
His blazing fastball and sinker have been crucial in his success, making him a key contender for the Cy Young Award. With a few more starts we think we’ll see his odds go even shorter.
Cy Young Odds: +250
Zack Wheeler has been a model of consistency for the Philadelphia Phillies, and with a team that is undoubtedly going to the playoffs, that says a lot.
With a 2.77 ERA over 136.2 innings in 22 games, Wheeler has delivered nothing less than quality starts throughout the season.
He has an 11-5 record and 148 strikeouts, which highlights Wheeler’s ability to control games and keep his team in contention.
His dominant fastball has made him a top pitcher in the league is one of the many reasons he is firmly in the Cy Young conversation.
Cy Young Odds: +8000
Aaron Nola has been a dependable ace for the Philadelphia Phillies but is nonetheless still considered a long shot for the Cy Young; however, it’s not quite out of reach.
Despite a relatively higher ERA of 3.54 over 142.1 innings in 23 games, Nola’s performance has been crucial for the Phillies. That’s because this veteran can go the distance, sometimes notching complete games.
With an 11-5 record, Nola’s ability to pitch deep into games and provide stability to the rotation has been essential.
Between his knuckle curve and 4-seamer, he’s a threat to every batter he faces. He might not be one of the top contenders for the award, but he’s one or two starts away from breaking out and giving Chris Sale and Paul Skenes a run for their money.
The Cy Young race is heating up as these pitchers continue to make their mark. If we had to pick the two winners for the 2024 Cy Young Award, we’d have to go with Tarik Skubal for the AL and Paul Skenes for the NL.
Skubal is absolutely dominant when he’s on the mound. There’s no contesting that, and the odds show he’s already running away with it.
As for Paul Skenes, the Baseball Writers' Association of America absolutely loves him. Oh, and his performance is mind-boggling. So, he’s going to take the NL Cy Young and add it to his growing trophy wall.
Beyond those two, as the season progresses, these players' performances will be closely scrutinized, and only time will tell who will emerge as the Cy Young Award winners in the American and National Leagues.