The 150th running of the Preakness Stakes is all set to deliver a high-stakes showdown tonight despite having a Triple Crown on the line. The Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, is skipping this leg to rest up for the Belmont Stakes. That leaves just a 9-horse field at Pimlico full of question marks, upside, and, of course, plenty of betting opportunities.
The favorite, Journalism, enters with flashy credentials and incredibly short odds. But this is the Preakness. This is a race that has humbled favorites year after year and we’re not so sure this year will be any different.
Even though this is a star-studded race, 3 horses stand out as strong picks — Goal Oriented, Sandman, and Heart of Honor. All have the right mix of upside, form, and value. Meanwhile, Journalism, despite his obvious talent, is a horse we think is worth fading at low odds.
Post: 1
Odds: 8-1
It’s easy to overlook a horse with just 2 starts (both wins), but that’s exactly why Goal Oriented is dangerous.
He enters the Preakness unbeaten, trained by none other than the legend D. Wayne Lukas — who’s won this race 7 times, which includes last year with Seize the Grey.
Goal Oriented took a major step up in class on Derby Day, winning an allowance race at Churchill Downs with style. He did it from the front, setting the pace for the entire race and holding off stalkers. That type of trip plays well at Pimlico — especially if the track turns muddy, which there’s a chance. But even on a dry track, speed tends to hold better here than at Churchill.
His pedigree checks out as well. By Medaglia d’Oro out of a Tapit mare, Goal Oriented is built for stamina. He has the kind of bloodlines that suggest he’d relish a wet surface if the forecast does happen to deliver some rain.
With odds sitting at 8-1, he’s offering some decent value. This isn’t some no-name barn taking a swing. This is Lukas, who knows exactly how to get a horse ready for the Preakness spotlight. We’re pretty confident if he breaks cleanly, which he should, he could go wire to wire.
Verdict: Definitely a win contender. Don’t hesitate to play him in exotics. Goal Oriented is a strong value at 8-1 or higher.
Post: 7
Odds: 6-1
If the weather shifts and Pimlico turns sloppy, Sandman is the first name we’ll have on our list.
He won the Arkansas Derby over a really sloppy track. He closed hard in the final furlong and flashed his grit. That was no fluke, either. His sire, Tapit, is one of the top mud-influencers in modern racing.
In the Kentucky Derby, Sandman didn’t have the best trip. He started from way back in the pack and rallied for 7th, but he never seriously threatened the leaders. But that run doesn’t scare us one bit. With 19 horses in the Derby, it’s tough to get a clean racing room. The smaller Preakness field which only has 9 horses is a huge plus for Sandman’s running style. Combine the space with the mud and you have a top pick.
On top of that, trainer Mark Casse knows what he’s doing here. He won this race in 2019 and again in 2023. John Velazquez is back aboard as well. He’s a Hall of Fame rider with a Preakness win already on his resume.
On either a dry or wet track, Sandman has the tools to launch late. And at current odds of 6-1, he’s more appealing than the heavy favorite, especially in exacta and trifecta bets.
Verdict: Sandman is easily the top win pick if the track is wet, but either way he’s a great candidate for exactas and trifectas.
Post: 4
Odds: 25-1
This one’s a little trickier, but we’ve got a good reason for taking Heart of Honor. At 25-1, he’ll be a longshot on most bet slips, but sometimes, Preakness magic comes from the unexpected corners.
He’s a global traveler with experience racing in Dubai, bred in Kentucky and Chile, sold in France, and trained near London before coming stateside. That’s quite a bit of experience.
Heart of Honor’s form is strong enough to warrant a look. What he lacks in American stakes seasoning, he makes up for in versatility and his international experience. We’ve seen it before — horses coming from Dubai or even Europe often don’t get the credit they deserve in U.S. racing.
The big unknown is how he’ll handle a wet track. He hasn’t raced on one, but then again at these odds, you're not looking for a safe play. You’re looking for a horse that can hit the board and blow up the superfecta.
Verdict: Heart of Honor is a stretch, but definitely a good use in deeper exotics. He’s the best value longshot in the race.
On paper, Journalism is the class of the field.
He finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and has 3 graded stakes wins under his belt. He’s ridiculously fast and his Beyer speed figures are strong as well. His pedigree says he should handle a wet track, and his trainer, Michael McCarthy, won this race in 2021. All of this sounds like a winner, right?
But there’s just one big problem — his odds.
At 4-5, he’s giving you absolutely nothing for the risk. Then you take into consideration that favorites haven’t done well in this race lately. Since Justify in 2018, there have been a string of upsets: National Treasure at 5-2, Seize the Grey at 12-1, and more.
And Journalism is coming off a tough effort in the Derby. That race was taxing and he left nothing on the track. The short 2-week turnaround can zap a horse’s form, especially one that didn’t finish the Derby with much in the tank. He chased Sovereignty and came up short on a wet track. He didn’t fold, but he didn’t exactly close the gap either.
Do we think he can win? Absolutely. However, should you bet him to win at 4-5 odds? Not unless you’re hedging something else.
Verdict: Definitely pass on win bets and we’d use him in exotics only. It’s just too short to offer any real value.
This year’s Preakness shapes up as a race where upside and momentum matter more than hype. You have to look at the complete picture to gain some insight. Without a Triple Crown on the line, horses that skipped the Derby or underperformed there are in a better spot to bounce back.
Top Win Pick: Sandman — Best combination of mud form, recent success, and tactical closing style.
Top Value Pick: Goal Oriented — Lukas’s record at Pimlico, front-end speed, and pedigree make this colt a sleeper threat.
Top Longshot: Heart of Honor — Massive price for a horse with a winning experience, international seasoning, and unknown upside. Worth tossing into exotic plays.
Fade: Journalism — Talented but easily overbet, and the Derby hangover is a real concern. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
If the weather changes and the track comes up muddy again — like it did last year — Sandman gets a serious boost. But even on a dry surface, he and Goal Oriented bring the right tools to trot away with the top spot.
For bettors, we recommend mixing and matching these 3 picks in exactas and trifectas with Journalism for coverage but don’t anchor everything on the favorite. History says this is a race that rewards bold calls.