God's Tipster's Sunday 2.13 Fair Grounds Pick – the 5th is a turf sprint with a closer coming of a long rest

Saturday’s Race Recap from Tampa Bay Downs:

(All odds US)

Replays for yesterday’s races from Tampa Bay can be found by clicking the links below:

Tampa Bay Downs:

Race 2: 4th@ 1.60/1

Race 3: 2nd@ 1.80/1

Race 5: 2nd@ 21.10/1

Race 6: 2nd@ 5.20/1

Race 7: 3rd@ 8.60/1

Race 10: 6th@ 15.00/1

Race 11: 6th@ 22.40/1

Our day began in Race 2 with Naval Battle getting a slow start and then trying to rush up to no avail. He made a mild bid for fourth. In Race 3, Afjan pressed the pace and beat 8 other horses but wasn’t able to hold off stablemate Macallan and had to settle for second. In Race 5, Napa Candy was sent to the lead on debut by Daniel Centano and given an excellent ride while battling bravely at 21/1 to come up a neck short at the wire. In Race 6, My Destiny pushed the early pace, drew away in the stretch only to get caught at the wire giving us our third straight 2nd place finish. It’s looking like one of those days that’ll make me start talking to myself. In Race 8, Pudding got a wide trip and rallied for third. In the Sam F. Davis Stakes we had God of Love, had the hot pace to close into, but he was taken very wide and never made up the ground. Same happened in Race 11 as we were taken far off the early pace and were unable to make up the ground in the lane.

Three second place finishes (two of them heartbreakingly close), a third and three off the board finishes from seven selections on the day. A frustrating day for win bettors like myself but EW or win/place bettors are rejoicing.

Let’s close out the week with some races from Fair Grounds and Aqueduct where we’re expecting sunny skies and a fast main track at both locations with a firm turf course at the Fair Grounds.

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Sunday pick for Fair Grounds:

Race 5: Emro - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)

Turf sprinters go five and a half furlongs here and there’s plenty of speed signed on here and one who’s proven she can win from on or off the pace is Emro. Emro won her debut sprinting on turf back in Aug of 2020 where she beat a next out winner. Brad Cox wheeled her back a few weeks later to try her in a turf stakes race at Kentucky Downs and she defeated 10 other runners that day with a quick move to the front where she drew off. She’s been off for over a year and returns for a barn that’s 23% with returnees of this ilk and 24% with turf sprinters in general. 6/1 odds looks like good value on a runner that’s likely to be much lower in odds by post time here in the States.

Best of luck to everyone playing Sunday’s races from Fair Grounds.