Thoroughbred Tuesday: Garrity goes to Parx Racing to pick the horses
For this deep winter Tuesday, we will play a quartet of races at Parx Racing in suburban Philadelphia. Precipitation is expected this afternoon, rain, snow, or the dreaded wintry mix, but the bulk of the moisture is supposed to fall in the evening, after the afternoon's races have concluded, and we're consequently guessing that the main track at Parx stays fast, as it was yesterday. So we've handicapped the races for a fast track. We're also expecting the track to be fair: it was bias-free yesterday, and we expect the same this afternoon. Let's go.
Parx Racing, Race 1, 12:25 pm ET
$7,500 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards, dirt, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
Eight females go in this claimer, with two of them coupled in the wagering due to common ownership. That leaves seven betting interests, but we have eyes for only one: 4-Stella B. This 5-year-old mare and Chris Engelhart trainee has been running strongly since last fall, won in a very similar spot at Parx on December 23, and has a midpack, stalking running style that is a perfect fit for the expected pace of this race. We have doubts that we will get her 3-1 morning line price -- she'll probably get bet, and be shorter when the gates open -- but we will bet her to win anyway. The bet: Parx Racing, Race 1, $40 to win on 4-Stella B.
Parx Racing, Race 4, 1:46 pm ET
$7,500 Claiming, 6 1/2 furlongs, dirt, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
The conditions of this race are the same as the first, except that it's a sprint, rather than a route. We mention that because we like another Chris Engelhart runner in here, 1-Sweet August Lady, who ships in from Finger Lakes in upstate New York and who is coming off a short layoff, having last run in October. She has good speed figures, and a good grinding running style, with enough speed to stay close to the leaders. She'll need a bit of luck breaking from the rail, but each of her last three dirt sprints have been good, and we're expecting another good effort today, as Engelhart is good (17% win rate) with horses coming off layoffs. We will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Parx Racing, Race 4, $35 to win on 1-Sweet August Lady. .
Parx Racing, Race 5, 2:13 pm ET
$20,000 Claiming, 1 mile 70 yards, dirt, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
A field of eight drew into this claiming race for females, and it's an interesting race to handicap. There are a few speed horses in here, which we think will result in a fast pace that will set the table for a class dropper, 2-Sweet Maggie Mae, a late-running 7-year-old mare who has been running in allowance company. These kinds of stretch-running horses are usually at a tactical disadvantage, as they need a fast pace, for the horses in front of them to slow down, to make their late run. Sweet Maggie Mae has not been getting that in her recent races, in which she started at the rear of the field and finished well back. We think that will not be the case today: at this lower level, she should be closer early, and speed horses in claiming races are less able to carry their speed than horses at higher levels. We see her toward the back early, making a move around the far turn, and getting up late to win. We will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Parx Racing, Race 5, $35 to win on 2-Sweet Maggie Mae. Wake up, Maggie, because we need you to hit the wire first.
Parx Racing, Race 8, 3:34 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, dirt, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
The featured race today at Parx is this first-level allowance dirt sprint for females, which drew eight entrants. The odds-on favorite is 3-Stonesintheroad, who is 4/5 on the morning line, primarily due to her high early speed and superior speed figures. She's probably the likeliest winner, but at a price this short, she's a mammoth underlay, and we will be eager to bet against her.
Stonesintheroad's main tactical advantage in this race is speed. If she gets an uncontested early lead, is allowed to set comfortable early fractions while loose on the front end, then she will almost certainly win. But there's an issue with this: the jockeys and trainers can read the Daily Racing Form too, and we do not expect the jockeys on the other horses in this race to give her a free pass early: doing so will be conceding the race. There are a few other runners with enough early zip to make the favorite sweat a little bit, so we see a contested early pace, which will set up the race for a come-from-behinder.
We like 6-Madame Barbarian, a 7-year-old mare who starts for trainer Scott Lake. She has little early foot, but does have a strong stretch-running kick, and while we generally dislike this running style, we think it's a fit here. We see her picking up the pieces late, and doing so at a good price: she's 8-1 on the morning line, and may be even higher at post time. We will bet her to win, with a small saver bet to place in case she just misses. The bets: Parx Racing, Race 8, $30 to win/$15 to place on 6-Madame Barbarian.
That's all for today. As always, good luck at the windows.