Thoroughbreds Friday - McMudder Picks Races at Belmont Park, Laurel
Sunny and mild with scattered showers. Awesome start to the weekend after the severe recent weather. The tracks all took on a lot of moisture and could receive more, so Mick is focused again on dirt races with angles favoring track condition specialists. This angle worked Thursday with several main Track Only (MTO) runners scoring. The downside was that they all paid poorly. More of that may happen Friday but with the short fields when MTOs get in, there is seldom much of a payoff.
Weather: Sunny . . . maybe. Rain . . . maybe. Plague of locust . . . always a possibility. Check out William Hill or Sugar House to see if you can get a line on that last one.
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Belmont Race 1 (1:30 p.m. ET)
1-Incredible Miss stands out here but more from breeding than performance. Six figure 2 year old purchase making third career start for Todd Pletcher but this one has been a B-team player all along based on where the works occurred. 3-Know Point Given should provide significant value here. She has run consecutive solid races and will get overlooked due to the small barn and low percentage rider. 2-Rose of Dublin ran behind the 3 last out and should do so again. Hard to see the others making an impact so the pools may skew heavily to the 1. If that happens look for opportunities to cash in on bridge jumpers.
Belmont Race 1
$10 W/P/S 3-Know Point Given (triple the show bet if the 1 gets hammered there)
$2 Exacta box 1,3
$1 Trifecta box 1,2,3
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Belmont Race 4 (3:08 p.m.)
3-Eagle Pass needs to repeat his recent races for a new barn. This is possible but this is a tougher group than he has run with recently. The uncontested pace from last time won’t happen here. 5-D T Goodie ships in from Parx for this one and looks for success away from Pennsylvania. Not the softest of spots to check his traveling abilities but his form for trainer Joe Taylor has been solid. 4-Papa Shot bounces to yet another barn and looks to reclaim his form from two back. This one makes a habit of hitting the board, especially on off tracks.
Belmont Race 4
$10 W/P/S 3-Eagle Pass
$2 Exacta box 3,5
$1 Trifecta box 3,4,5
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Laurel Race 4 (2:40 p.m.)
2-Bourbon and Ice is always a good way to start off a race day. It’s 5 o’clock somewhere . . . right? This one has fewer calories and won’t leave you with a headache. Trainer Mark Reid does well with these kind (maiden claimers and sprinters) and he and pilot Julio Correa are at 23% in partnership. Should pay well since the 5-Quality Matters will get over bet based on connections and pedigree. This one needs more ground and needs to be special to win at this distance since Quality Road gets stayers, at least by U.S. standards. 8-Bold Trek moves onto the dirt for the first time and gets he outside post which should help since he will have less time to get fractious prerace. This trainer/rider partnership is overdue for success since both halves are solid. 1-Seven On the Rocks ran a cracker last out to finish second. But expect a bounce off the rapid turnaround.
Laurel Race 4
$10 W/P/S 2-Bourban and Ice
$2 Exacta box 2,5
$1 Trifecta box 2,5,8
$0.10 Superfecta box 1,2,5,8
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MICK’S QUICKIES
Belmont Race 9 (5:51 p.m.): 7-Pickle Rick plunges here and should pay dividends. 29% trainer dropping out of special weight company.
Laurel Race 7 (4:10 p.m.): 5-Our Star gets the second turn for the first time and should move up as a result. Mom was a stone cold runner.