Horse Racing: Garrity finds the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream

Horse racing in recent years has become, at least as far as casual fans, a sport of Big Days. Normal racing days, and even good weekend cards, like a typical major-track Saturday slate with one or two graded stakes, an overnight stakes, and good allowance and maiden races, barely move the needle, but Big Days get noticed. This is driven primarily, we think, by the biggest of big days, the Triple Crown races, and to a lesser extent by the Breeders Cup.

Even traditional tracks like Belmont Park have begun stacking stakes races like flapjacks at the local pancake house: on Belmont Stakes day this year, for example, NYRA will run nine stakes races, with an eye-popping seven of them Grade 1: this is the  most loaded card of the year outside of the Breeders Cup.

We, being firmly in the grumpy traditionalist camp, might note that this number of stakes s probably excessive, that the Belmont Stakes card would be just as riveting with half or even a third the number of black-type races, and that every Grade 1 that was moved to Belmont Day represents a loss on another weekend day. The Metropolitan Handicap, aka the Met Mile, is a good example of this: Sure, it's a terrific race on the Belmont undercard, but moving it from its traditional late May date has turned what used to be a great weekend for New York racing, Memorial Day, into just another ho-hum deal. But, whether we like them or not, big days are here to stay.

We mention all of this because tomorrow there is a Big Day, and it's Fountain of Youth Day at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida. They have turned what used to be a nice day at the races, and the first real early-season Kentucky Derby prep -- for many, many years, we considered the Fountain of Youth the unofficial start of Derby season -- into an official big deal; there are 14 races tomorrow, including nine -- count 'em, nine -- graded stakes. It's a veritable orgy of top-shelf racing, so of course we are going to dive right in: We are like Oscar Wilde, and we can resist everything except temptation. And this is a very tempting card.

We will also note here that we will restrict our discussion here to the card at Gulfstream; there are decent cards elsewhere on Saturday, but the racing at Gulfstream is enough to keep us plenty busy.

Gulfstream is going to catch a break with the weather: the forecast is for sunny temperatures, highs in the low 80s, and little to no chance of rain. The dirt and turf courses were fast and firm on Friday, and we are expecting them to be the same on Saturday.

Here is the lineup of the stakes races on the card:

Race 4:  Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes, three-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, turf, post time 1:00 pm Eastern
Race 5:  Grade 3 Canadian Turf Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile, turf, post time 1:30 pm
Eastern
Race 6:  Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs, dirt, post time 2:00 pm Eastern
Race 7:  Grade 3 The Very One Stakes, filles and mares 4 and up, 1 3/16 miles, turf, post time 2:30 pm Eastern
Race 8:  Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes, three-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, turf, post time 3:00 pm Eastern
Race 11: Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile, turf, post time 4:30 pm Eastern
Race 12: Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes, three-year-old fillies, 1 mile, dirt, post time 5:01 pm Eastern
Race 13: Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, three-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, post time 5:32 Eastern
Race 14: Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes, Grade 2, four year olds and up, 1 3/8 miles, turf, post time 6:06 Eastern

In addition to the standard win/place/show bets, there are rolling doubles, rolling pick 3s, and various other exotica, like Pick 4s and Pick 5s, all over the place. The betting menu is so rich and so varied that we lack the space to list all the bets here; refer to your program, the Form, or the Gulfstream website for all the details.

Now, let's get to the races themselves.

The Palm Beach has a heavy favorite, 5-A Thread of Blue, who won his last two races in very impressive fashion. And he might be even better than his past performances make him look: he went wire-to-wire to win the overnight Dania Beach Stakes on February 3,  and he did so on a turf course that was biased against early speed. If he is able to run even better on a fair surface, he could dominate this race from start to finish. He seems to outclass this field, but he's even money, which is an unappetizing price. This is a race to watch, not to bet.

The Canadian Turf looks like a chalkfest: the favorite, 7-Breaking the Rules, has been brought along very patiently by trainer Shug McGaughey, but looks, in his first start as a four-year-old, to become a stakes winner. 6-Hembree, is a good bet for second: this Mike Maker trainee has run second 5 times in 8 tries at this distance. That would be a 7-6 exacta, but we cannot in good conscience make that an official play here, because picking an exacta with a 9/5 favorite on top, and a 5/2 second favorite in second, is a certified weasel move. So we will make this race a no-play.

The Gulfstream Park Sprint came up with a field that looks weak for a graded stakes race; it was easy for us to draw a line through most of the entrants. For us, the race comes down to 6/5 favorite, 1-Recruiting Ready and the 3-1 second choice, Quijote. The other horses just do not appear fast enough to stay with these speedballs. Of the two, we give the nod to Recruiting Ready, as he has superior early speed, so we'll make him a play, and bet $10 to win on 1-Recruiting Ready.

In the Very One, we do not like 9/5 favorite Holy Helena; she is the favorite because she ran well in some high-class stakes races last year, but her recent form is poor. Instead, we like 4-Semper Sententiae: this gray four-year-old filly is lightly raced, but seems to have hit her stride recently. We expect her to improve today, and that should put her in the winner's circle. We will bet $20 to win on 4-Semper Sententiae.

Trainer Chad Brown dominates the Herecomesthebride, but that is hardly a surprise, as he dominates stakes racing on grass across the country. He has three runners here, and they all have merits: French Bred 6-Golconda, 7-Cambier Parc, and 8-Connectivity will start next to each other, and they appear to be the class of the race. Of the three, we prefer Golconda: she ran competitively in some good races in France last year, and though this is her first start in this country, Brown has a good record with North American firsters, and she should relish the firm turf she will get in the race. We will bet $20 to win on 6-Golconda, and we will also box Brown's horses in the trifecta; that's a 6-7-8 trifecta box, and we'll bet it for a dollar, which will cost $6.

We're picking another Chad Brown horse in the Honey Fox: It's 1-Precieuse, who breaks from the rail. She has been away since a good runner-up finish at Saratoga in August; we think she returns off the layoff in a big way -- in fact, we love her. We will bet $25 to win on 1-Precieuse.

The Davona Dale has the heaviest winner on the card; 1-Jaywalk, looks like she will have to fall down to lose. But she's 2/5 on the morning line, and will likely be even shorter at post time. We are going to try to beat her, and we are doing it with 6-Bold Script. This shipper from Canada has shown ability on both turf and Woodbine's synthetic surface, but she has never run on dirt, and her pedigree suggests she will thrive on it. We will say a novena and try to beat Jaywalk: we'll take a stab with a $10 on 6-Bold Script, at 10-1.

In the Mac Diarmida, the 14th on Gulfstream's card, we like 6-Zuzu Alpha. This six-year-old gelding has been in excellent form lately, winning the Grade 3 McKnight on a yielding turf course last out. The race lacks a clear pacesetter; we think that the race will be slow early, and fast late. These kinds of races are usually won by the horse who is moving the best late, and in this race, we think that's Zuzu Alpha. We will bet $20 to win on 6-Zuzu Alpha, at 3-1.

Now we turn to the feature on the card, the Fountain of Youth. And it is a race that lives up to its billing: there is a deep and talented field here, with many well-bred horses with impressive credentials. Perhaps the hottest horse here, at least in terms of racetrack scuttlebutt, is 9/5 favorite Hidden Scroll: he won a maiden race in the slop at Gulfstream a month ago, finishing an eye-popping 14 lengths in front, and earning a stratospheric Beyer Speed Figure in the process. He may be the real deal, but we are not sold on him: we cannot take 9/5 on a horse who has run once, and has never run on a fast track or around two turns. He may win, but if he does, it will be without our money riding on him.

When we look at the rest of the field, we see many runners with copious early speed. Moreover, several, with Code of Honor being the most noteworthy example, have pedigrees that suggest less success running in longer races -- and in comparing the two-turn Fountain of Youth to the one-turn mile races run at Gulfstream, the increase in distance is much larger than than the actual extra distance of 110 yards suggests. Having to negotiate the extra turn makes a big difference.

We are expecting a fast pace in this race, and we think that sets up the race for a closer. We do not think the pace will fall apart, so we're not looking for a horse running from out of the clouds. We think instead the race sets up perfectly for a mid-pack stalker. And that horse is 4-Vekoma.

Vekoma is undefeated in two races, and has come from a bit off the pace in both of them. His Beyer Speed Figure in his last race, the Nashua at Aqueduct in November, was 97, which means he possesses the ability to win a race at this level. And he might actually be better than this: He was green in the Nashua, running about half the stretch with his head turned sideways, and he didn't switch to the correct lead until deep stretch. If he has matured, and can run in a straight line, he may be even better than better than his speed figures from the fall suggest.

We think Vekoma will sit off the pace, make a move at the top of the stretch, and hold off the deep closers. His ability and running style check all the boxes here. He is our pick.

We also like 4-Bourbon War, to complete the exacta. We'll bet $25 on 4-Vekoma, to win, and we'll play a $5 exacta box with Vekoma and Bourbon War. That's a 4-5 box, for $10. And in the trifecta, we'll key Vekoma on top, key put Bourbon War in 2nd and 3rd, and play all in the other slots. That's two tickets: 5-4-ALL, and 5-ALL-4; just for fun, we'll play each of these for 50 cents, which makes each ticket cost $4.50, for a total bet in the trifecta of $9.

That's all for today -- and what a day of racing it will be. Enjoy it. And good luck at the windows.