The PGA Tour continues its West Coast swing at the Farmers Insurance Open, played at the historical Torrey Pines. The early part of the season has been profitable for our readers. The first two PGA Tour events finished in the green, last week highlighted by J.T. Poston getting the job done inside the Top 40, along with another profitable DFS week.
This week, Torrey Pines will demand power and precision this week as winning scores here are far lower than typical PGA Tour events. Last year’s winner, Harris English, captured the title at -8, winning by a single stroke, and returns to defend his title.
While the biggest storyline of the week may be the return of Brooks Koepka, who has missed the cut in his last three appearances at Torrey Pines, most recently in 2022. Let's dive into the numbers.
Torrey Pines is a long, demanding layout that puts a premium first on driving distance and second on avoiding thick, rough off the tee. Players who excel at long-iron play this week will find themselves in the top 20.
Players miss greens at a much higher rate here, hitting only 34% of greens in regulation compared to a 43% tour average, while birdie rates decline and bogey-or-worse rates increase. This is not a birdie-fest type of course we have been accustomed to.
Players will have to grind out and manage their misses. The South Course forces players to hit longer approaches into firm greens, putting a premium on par-4 and par-5 scoring. Distance and trajectory control are usually key factors this week.
● Apex Height – Higher ball flight gives players the chance to hold greens from longer distances. Players with low trajectories have to make up elsewhere on this course
● Ball Speed / Club Head Speed – Highly correlated for a reason, these attributes are critical for driving distance, long iron play, and escaping deep rough off the tee
● Driving Distance – Correlated back to club head speed and a major edge on lengthy par 4s and par 5s. Players with length have an advantage this week
● Par 5 Scoring – Four par 5s provide the best scoring opportunities for both players looking to separate from the field, or looking to get back into it
● Putting Inside 10 Feet – Putting from any distance within 10 feet becomes absolutely crucial for saving pars and converting limited birdie chances
If you guys want my DFS lineup, check the Link in my bio on all social platforms. This week, we have plenty of players to like with solid course history/good form, and we are attacking multiple finishing markets.
Åberg’s combination of ball speed, driving distance, and high apex iron fits Torrey Pines like a glove. He has the ability to attack long par 4s and score on par 5s while creating separation from the field. He has played excellently here. He tied for 9th in 2024, T42 last season in this event, and won on this course at the Genesis last season.
Zalatoris remains one of the best long-iron players on Tour, and he looks fully healthy back from injury. With last season cut short in May, he burst back onto the scene with finishes of 15 at the Nedbank in December, then started his PGA Tour 2026 season with a T18 last week. On this course, he has finished T24, T13, and 2nd. When he makes the cut, he usually contends.
Let’s build off Knapp’s T11 2026 debut at the Sony Open. Knapp has found success in his limited time on this course. With finishes of T3, T32, and T17, he ranks as the 3rd best player in true strokes gained at +1.93 per round, in 11 rounds on the South Course. His strength off the tee and ball-striking give him a chance every time on this course.
Valimaki is always a strong look at bigger + odds, especially somewhere familiar, and even more coming off a missed cut. Sami’s 2026 did not get off the way he had hoped, missing the cut, giving back a brutal 4 strokes on approach, which is a key stat to contend this week. So why back him coming off a terrible showing? History showed last season that when Sami was cut, he bounced back the following start. Sami missed the cut in nine events in 2025. After five of those instances, he finished top 40 the next start. He finished T15 and T43 in his two starts here.
The value isn’t the best, but boy, has Sam been locked in, and you see the price reflects that. Sam started his 2026 campaign with T31 and T6 last week, and he has one of the best course histories over the last 5 starts of any player in this field. He's basically tied with Jake Knapp as the third-highest rated player based on true strokes gained. Sam has finishes of T31, 2nd, T43, and T13 in his last four starts.