The PGA Tour makes its December trip to the Bahamas, with 20 players, in a no-cut field, setting the stage for another high-scoring week at Albany Golf Club. Albany is one of the most forgiving courses off the tee you’ll see all year. Albany boasts wide landing areas, minimal rough, and plenty of chances for players to be aggressive and open it up with the driver.
As a majority of players will be playing from the same landing areas, this event becomes a true test of ball striking, approach shots, and short-game precision. We have seen in years past that when players miss these greens, they can struggle to get up and down consistently. Players who can find greens-in-regulation, while capitalizing on 1-putt’s will certainly be ahead of the pack.
The formula is simple at Albany: elite ball striking plus sharp mid-to-long-iron play usually equals a top-10 finish. Strong putters can make a move once on the surface, but players must avoid the negative numbers around the green complexes.
Albany is one of the most approach-dependent venues in golf based on past strokes gained data (limited data with short fields, but still ranked 1 nonetheless):
Approaches from 150–175 yards: #1 ranked on Tour
Approaches from 150–275 yards: #1 on Tour
Proximity to the Hole: #3 on Tour
Greens-in-regulation %: #11 on Tour
Players who are able to dial their irons in from these distances while combining streaky putting are the ones who separate in this event. Strokes can absolutely be made up on the putting surface at Albany, but you have to get it there first. Nineteen players will be chasing the world’s best golfer in Scottie Scheffler, who has finished 2nd or better in four straight trips.
Spaun perhaps jumped up everyone's boards after his stellar season, and his last 20 rounds show he could find success at Albany. Out of the players in this field, Spaun ranks #2 in true strokes gained on approach at +1.31 strokes per round.
Spaun and Scheffler are the only two in this field over 1 stroke per round. In that time frame, Spaun also ranks #3 in total true strokes gained, #6 off the tee, and #8 around the green.
He does rank #15 in this field in true strokes gained putting, but if he can even shoot average there, he has a very good chance to score for us here.
Young’s profile may be the nicest one to look at out of the 20 players. Over their last 20 rounds, he ranks #1 off the tee, #2 total strokes gained, and #2 strokes gained putting, #3 tee-to-green, and #5 on approach.
If he isn’t in your lineups this week, it may be criminal. To add to his recent form, he has finished T13, T15, and 3 here, while posting the 6th highest true strokes gained in course history. If he can use his driver to out-position his competition, the ball-striking becomes easier for Cameron.
Rose not only has fantastic history here, 4th highest true strokes gained over a whopping 25 total rounds, but his last three finishes have all been top 10. He is one of the best approach players in this field and usually thrives in technical approach-play setups.
Rose ranks inside the top-10 in this field over his last 20 rounds in every category except off-the-tee and around-the-green. If Rose can mind his P’s and Q’s in those two areas, then I like his +225 to finish inside the top-5!
Noren’s recent resurgence has been powered by elite iron play and some of the best putting stretches of his career since the 3M Open. Since that time, Noren has reeled off a T7, T3, two Wins, and is coming off a T17 and T16, the last four coming on the DP World Tour.
Perhaps lacking the better competition, he still looks to be one of the more locked-in players at this current moment. He has been active and posting good performances.
He has gained strokes on approach in seven straight events, while gaining over 1 stroke per round putting in four of those events, two of which he gained over 2 strokes putting per round at the BMW and 3M Open.
Though it's only four rounds, Bhatia is the 2nd-ranked player in this field on true strokes gained at Albany. Bhatia finished in fourth place last season, and while I do expect some regression there, I still expect Bhatia to score. He is coming off one of his worst performances in months and is at a perfect place to rectify that.
Prior to his performance at Sanderson Farms, where he was Cut and gave back strokes in every category, he gained positive strokes on approach in twelve straight events, gaining positive strokes in total in eight straight. In that time frame, Bhatia had nine top-30 finishes, six top-25s.
At the lower prices, Harman was my favorite option by far, and I think $6,400 could prove to be one of the best pure value plays on the slate. His accuracy, discipline, and elite wedge/short-iron skillset give him a real chance to beat half this field.
He knows this course coming off a 12th place and T8 and ranks as the seventh best player in this field over their last 20 rounds on approach and tee-to-green. Harman is in a similar situation as he was in 2023, coming off a cut at the RSM, where he was brutal with the putter; he finished T8 that season.
Before his missed cut, Harman had placed top 30 in five straight and six of his last seven events, while also placing T3 at the RBC Heritage and winning the Valero Texas Open.
With not many choices for value on the board, and I am not one to press a Top 5 placement as I have too many players I like at that spot, I’ll take a stab at Harman to find us another top 10 finish, as he did back in 2023.
At plus money, Harman stands out as one of the most mispriced players in both DFS and betting markets. Albany leans into two of his strengths, approach play and tee-to-green. If he can find consistency around the greens and with the flat stick, he could place top 5 in this weaker field.