The PGA Tour gets the fall swing back in action as the players head to Jackson, Mississippi, this week for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Now, after we cashed our +175 article play on Team Europe at the Ryder Cup, we shift our focus back to our top finishing positions.
This event has seen a playoff to decide the winner in the last two tournaments, while the winner usually goes low as dating back to 2017-18, most winners are -18 to -20+. Even minus all the star power this weekend, when tournaments have low scoring, they usually bring a thrilling finish!
The Country Club of Jackson is set at just shy of 7,500 yards, with par set to 72. The Country Club is rather easy among the Tour’s courses. It features tree-lined fairways that do demand accuracy off the tee, but are wide enough to hit.
The course also boasts Bermuda grass throughout, along with greens that are on the smaller side compared to modern Tour courses.
This course gets its length partially from the four par-5s, in which the players must set themselves up off the tee to take advantage of the scoring opportunities.
Precise iron play and hitting greens in regulation can go a long way on a course like this. As we have seen in the past, players should be able to stick their approach shots, giving opportunity to plenty of birdie chances.
These are the stat categories worth prioritizing that data suggests correlate to the most consistent success on this course:
● Strokes Gained: Total / Putting — Both rank #9 on tour. Players must be able to play well overall on this course, and when you have to go low to compete, putting will always be a key factor! Overall consistency plus putting strength has been a big predictor of success here.
● Strokes Gaines Approach — Ranks #13 on tour, it's not top 10, but it's a critical piece to success around Jackson. Finding greens in regulation, especially with proximity, could be all a player needs to dominate here.
● Putting from 8–15 feet — Players need to average -4 to -5 per day, and I know we will see some higher than that. In order to go low, a player usually will need to drain some longer putts and string together scoring opportunities.
● Scrambling from 30 yards — Balls that don’t stick will roll off these smaller greens. Missed greens in a scoring battle are never good. Being able to score or save dropping a shot is huge here.
● Total Birdies — Mentioned previously, we usually see a -20 score; players will need to string together birdies, find some eagles, and avoid giving back.
Hossler has quietly been one of the steadiest players on Tour in recent weeks. He has racked up four top 25 finishes in his last six starts. In this field, he ranks 3rd overall, gaining 1.07 true strokes per round over his last 20 rounds.
His game fits the Jackson layout well, and his history here suggests as such. He ranks #10 in this field at an adjusted strokes gained, around +1 stroke per round. He has played 16 rounds here, finishing 2nd last season and T28 the year prior.
Thorbjornsen has been on a consistent run with Hossler as well. He has also added four top 25 finishes in his last six starts. Though he only had 1 start here last season, finishing 8th, he ranks #2 in adjusted strokes gained at this course, +1.75 strokes.
He sits right around the top 10 in this field over their last 20 rounds in total true strokes gained. In those six starts, he has gained positive strokes across his bag, giving slightly back around the green. His approach play has sharpened, and he is gaining positive results off the tee with both distance and accuracy.
Højgaard brings an aggressive style that should thrive at Jackson. He’s been in really sharp form on both the PGA Tour and the European Tour in recent weeks. He was also part of Team Europe's win in the Ryder Cup, and while I think that could potentially bring a fade spot as his energy could be lacking, I want to trust he will keep things going.
He ranks as the #2 player in total true strokes gained over their last 20 rounds in this field behind the favorite to win it, Akshay Bhatia. He is gaining nearly a stroke on approach, tee-to-green, and +1.29 total over those last 20 rounds. He has never played here, but he has the distance and aggressive style to go low.