The FedEx Cup Playoffs are officially underway with the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. This will be the first of three playoff tournaments, featuring the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings.
With no cut, every player will have four full rounds to make their move toward East Lake. The top 50 players move on to next week, with numerous players jockeying to get into the top 50. This will be an exciting weekend as TPC Southwind is no pushover!
TPC Southwind, a par 70, just under 7,300 yards, underwent a full-scale renovation over the past season, with updates made to every green and tee box. The course now expects to play firmer and faster, putting even more emphasis on precision and control. Southwind is notoriously known to eat the most water balls throughout these next four rounds.
Southwind features narrow fairways bordered by water hazards and dense Bermuda rough that penalizes wayward shots. Out of 14 drivable holes, 13 reward accuracy over distance. Southwind includes four par 3s and just two par 5s, making birdies harder to come by in bunches.
That creates an advantage for players who can maintain steady play and capitalize on scoring chances. Southwind certainly rewards strategic ball placement off the tee, and sharp iron play can set these guys up to score.
TPC Southwind ranks high in importance for approach play and putting on Bermuda surfaces. Southwind ranks 12th on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting, making it a ball-striker's test from tee to green.
Off the tee, Driving Accuracy outweighs raw distance. Southwind ranks 15th in Strokes Gained off the Tee, not because of length but because of the penalty for missing the fairway. Southwind ranks 22nd on tour in penalty for a missed fairway.
Players scrambling from the rough are tested regularly, and this course ranks 3rd on tour in difficulty when it comes to scrambling from the rough. Proximity to the Hole also matters, and Southwind is 4th on tour.
Fitzpatrick has been on an absolute tear with FOUR straight Top 8’s, five straight Top 20’s. He has also been one of the best players in this field over the last twenty rounds. Over their last twenty rounds, he ranks 2nd in total strokes and strokes gained tee-to-green, while ranking 14th off the tee, 15th on approach to green, and 3rd around the green.
He also ranks 19th in driving accuracy over that period, which will serve large here. His history here has been up and down, finishing T18, T66, T5, T57, and T6 over his last five, and with his current form, he could find another Top 20.
The odds are juicy, but I think they should be a lot higher! MacIntyre’s history and recent form make him a strong play. In his last two trips to Southwind, he has posted a T7 and a T15. He’s also posted three Top 20s in his last five events.
Over his last twenty rounds, he ranks 13th in strokes gained total, 8th around the green, and 12th with the putter. In those two trips here, that is exactly what he did it with, gaining 2.83 strokes off the tee and 1.54 strokes per round last year, and had similar results in 2021.
Coming off a T44, he could be looking to strengthen his position in the standings. I also love his +148 Top 20 look on BetRivers, which I took a stab at!
Clark is on a mission, and I am here to make some money off of it. Another play with juicier odds than I like, but it's a solid spot for him. Last season, he finished T7, placing T28 in 2022, and he comes into this week on literal fire.
Clark has finished T12, T4, and T11 in his last three events, while also placing T17 at the Travelers in late June. He gained strokes across every part of his bag here last season, and he needs to find another high finish this week.
Over his last twenty rounds, he ranks 11th in strokes gained total, 25th on approach, 7th around the green, and 13th in putting. Putting it all together at the right time, he is another player I took a stab on +148 Top 20.
I can’t get off Hall now, even if he has never played this course, which usually keeps me off everyone. While I know not everyone struggles in their first attempt at a course, it is usually a spot where you can always find other players you like just as much.
Hall is just different, and even if he isn’t the most accurate off the tee, he makes up for it where scoring matters the most, on the putting surface. Ranked number 1 in nearly every putting statistic, he's able to make up for any mistakes he makes on his way to the green.
As long as he can avoid the big mistakes like repeatedly hitting into the rough, or somehow finding the water, it could be a long weekend. Having said that, he's been one of the best players over the last two months, finishing inside the Top 20 in seven of his last nine events.
Old man Glover is back for one more trip, and I am here for it. Glover is not getting much love this weekend, and I don’t get it. Perhaps his time has passed, but the data and course history suggest otherwise.
Glover’s last two trips here resulted in a 1st place win and a T3. To add to that, outside of his most recent missed cut, he finished T23, T5, and T9. He quietly ranks 9th in strokes tee-to-green and 12th in approach while ranking 6th in driving accuracy over his last twenty rounds.
Glover ranks 3rd in the strokes gained per round adjusted model, and it shows that his last two trips he obliterated strokes gained total per round at 3.3 and 2.9.
*If you like parlays, these are some finishing parlays I like for the odds with great player course history! *
Top 30 Parlay: Viktor Hovland + Hideki Matsuyama (+146)
Top 30 Parlay: Justin Thomas + Xander Schauffele (-109)
Top 40 Parlay: Jordan Spieth + Emiliano Grillo (-103)