The RBC Canadian Open returns this week with a new chapter in its long-standing history. The PGA Tour travels to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the very first time. With no prior Tour history at this course, players will be navigating uncharted territory.
As always, we can lean on small trends like how a player tends to play in Canada, and on courses set up like this, but that only helps sift through the data so much. It looks like there is a chance the players can go low here, and we can find ourselves in a birdie fest.
The only defense this course looks to have is the wind conditions, and if the tournament set-up committee decides, they can grow the rough longer. The fresh venue brings added intrigue and should be a fantastic tune-up before next week's U.S. Open at Oakmont.
TPC Toronto’s North Course makes its PGA Tour debut as a par-70 layout playing at 7,389 yards. The early scouting reports suggest this will be a driver-heavy setup with wide landing areas, scoring opportunities, and a focus on aggressive play. Players are expected to cut corners off the tee, lay up short of trouble, and rely heavily on wedge play into receptive greens.
Looks like there has been rainy conditions in Toronto as of late which could help the greens be even more receptive. Water hazards and bunkers are present but don’t look to add too much danger. If conditions remain soft and scoring-friendly, this could develop into a low-scoring affair resembling the birdie fests often seen on TPC-style courses.
With no past data from this venue, projections are based largely on course layout and player profiles that fit well on similar setups. Some key metrics that are expected to play a major role:
● Driving Distance and Accuracy: Players who can combine power with control will have the edge, particularly when trying to shorten par-4s or avoid water.
● Proximity with Wedges: Many holes set up for short approach shots, so elite wedge play could come into play.
● Birdie or Better Percentage: With expected low scores, players will need to convert a high number of opportunities.
● Recent Form: With no course history to guide us, recent consistency is more important than usual.
With a large group of the top players missing from this event, all eyes will surely be on this group of players to see how their current form looks heading into next week.
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy enters as the clear favorite and two-time winner of the Canadian Open (2019, 2022). He’s coming off a T47 at the PGA Championship, but outside of that, he had 4 straight top-10 finishes. If the driver and putting game are on point, he’ll be difficult to beat.
Ludvig Aberg
Aberg continues to be very inconsistent this season and is a player I find very difficult to back with real hard-earned money. He's been very Jekyll and Hyde this season with 3 top 10 finishes, 5 inside top 22, but also has 3 missed cuts, and finished outside T40 3 times. If he can follow last week's T16 up with another strong finish, he may be a strong candidate next week!
Wyndham Clark
Clark is still searching for it and I am not sure if can fix his game in time for next week. He has finished outside the top-50 in 3 straight, and in 13 starts outside the Zurich, he has finished top-20 just 3 times. He won the US Open 2 years ago and could be a dark horse candidate vs that field.
Despite a disappointing Sunday last week that led to a T25 finish, Conners had logged top-20 results in eight of his previous nine starts. As a Canadian Native, he tends to play well on Canadian courses and usually scores well in TPC style courses, if indeed this plays like one. He ranks #9 strokes gained off the tee, 21st in total strokes gained, 18th in greens in regulation and 22nd in proximity, he should play well yet again!
I sound like a broken record lately with Conner and Lowry, but both have been two of the most consistent players this season. Lowry has posted seven top-20 finishes in his last 11 starts and remains one of the most reliable iron players in the field. He finished T23 last week and is positioned well to bounce back inside the top-20 as he has done all season. Lowry has 4 top 10s this season, backed by #5 rank strokes gained total and #3 strokes gained approach green, he's one of the best players on tour in getting to the putting surface!
Burns has quietly gained my trust put together five straight top-30 finishes and nine overall this season. With his putter rocking the way it is and his length off the tee, he could find a victory here. He ranks #1 on tour in strokes gained putting, #9 in birdie average, and 32 strokes gained total. His current form suggests if he stays locked in, he will find another solid finish in Canada!
I could be just a homer, but he has been one of my favorite players to wager on the past few seasons. Hall may be the most underrated value play on the board. He has posted four straight top 40 finishes, improving spots each week, including a sixth place finish last week. He’s cashed top 40 in six of his last seven events and has placed T34 and T42 in his two previous Canadian Opens. Hall ranks #4 in strokes gained putting and 15th in strokes gained total. He has the distance to compete, and if he is rolling it, he could find a top-20.
His recent form and solid play in Canada make him a play at playable odds. Mitchell has quietly made top-40 in nine events this season, finishing inside the top-40 in five of his last six. His only misstep came at the PGA Championship, which I never hold against a player. He ranks #7 strokes gained off tee, #22 total strokes gained, #4 in scoring average, #8 in birdie average, he does most things well which shows why he consistently finishes well!