After another week of Scottie Scheffler dominating a golf event, he returns to Colonial looking to win his 3rd straight event. The PGA Tour heads to a familiar place in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.
Last week’s major was a test of power, ball striking, and clutch putting. This week is all about accuracy, ball striking, hitting with proximity to the hole, and being able to finish putts. This is one of the most classic and strategic tracks on Tour.
This course demands accuracy on almost every tee shot, precise iron play, and sharp putting. Most years we see the top scores sit around -8 or -9 and I believe that is where we will find our leaders once again come Sunday!
Colonial is a 7,289-yard par-70 layout that doesn’t intimidate with length, but instead with precision and accuracy! The fairways are tree-lined and tight, demanding accuracy off the tee far more than distance.
Driving it into the rough here can be costly for players who cannot navigate the rough well. Approaching these greens from the rough is the last thing these players want.
Key Stats for Success at Colonial:
● Driving Accuracy: Critical, as rough lies make it difficult to hit the small greens and lowers ability to hit greens with any proximity to the hole.
● Proximity to Hole: Colonial ranks 3rd on Tour in terms of how proximity relates to scoring. If you can hit it close, you can score on these holes.
● Strokes Gained: Putting: The best putters tend to rise to the top here, with SG: Putting ranking 13th in correlation to winning success. Even if a player struggles off the tee, they could save a hole around and on the putting surface.
All bets placed on Bet365 including ties
Jordan Spieth may have missed the cut at the PGA Championship last week, but if there’s any venue that feels like a “get right” spot for him, it’s Colonial.
The Dallas native has thrived at this course historically, racking up nine Top-15 finishes here over the years, including a win in 2016 and three runner-ups. Before his stumble last week and a T34 at the Byron Nelson, Spieth had posted four straight Top 20 finishes and six Top 20s in his last eight starts.
Despite a dip in recent form, he currently ranks 23rd in Strokes Gained: Total and has shown steady improvement off the tee and on the greens. If he can dial in his approach play and proximity numbers this week, another strong showing at Colonial is within reach!
Daniel Berger is quietly putting together one of the most consistent seasons on Tour. He returns to Colonial, where he won in 2020 in a playoff over Collin Morikawa, and followed that victory with finishes of T20, T23, and T45.
Berger’s form is arguably the best it’s been since his win here five years ago. He has 10 straight Top 35 finishes and has landed in the Top 20 in six of his last 13 starts.
Statistically, he checks every box this course demands: 8th in SG: Total, 17th Off the Tee, 15th in Approach, 9th in Driving Accuracy, and 15th in Proximity to the Hole. If his putter cooperates this week, Berger is not just a Top-20 threat, he can win this event again!
Aaron Rai continues to be one of the more underappreciated ball strikers on Tour, and his recent form is backing up the analytics. Coming off a T19 finish at the PGA Championship, Rai now has 10 Top-40 finishes in 12 events this season (excluding the Zurich team event). In that run he has six Top-30s in his last seven starts.
His course history at Colonial is solid, with finishes of T32, T12, and T68, and his game fits the course like a glove. With a weaker field this week I believe he is easily one of the 20 best players here.
He ranks 1st in Driving Accuracy, 16th in Greens in Regulation, and 20th in SG: Approach, which are all critical stats this week. His only glaring weakness is the putter (96th in SG: Putting), but if he can roll it with success this week, he’ll be a major threat to crack the Top 20.
Harry is riding back-to-back Top 20 finishes, including a T19 at the PGA Championship, and has made seven consecutive cuts, finishing Top 40 in five of those events.
Hall missed the cut at Colonial last year, but that came one year after a T3 finish in 2023. Seeing he has found success and failure here, sets him up for a better performance his 3rd time around.
His putting stats are elite: 4th in SG: Putting, 2nd in Putts Average, and 1st in Putts per Round. He ranks 18th in SG: Total, and if he can stay clean from tee to green, his putter could carry him into a top 30 or Top 40 finish!
Ryan Gerard may be a lesser-known name, but the 24-year-old has proven he belongs on tour. After finishing T8 at the PGA Championship last week, he’s now posted seven Top-40 finishes in his last 12 events, including a 2nd at Valero and 9th at the Houston Open, which are both Texas courses.
He hasn’t played Colonial yet, which adds a bit of uncertainty, but statistically, he looks like a great course fit: 14th in SG: Total, 26th in Approach, and Top 30 in both Putting Average and SG: Putting.
With his recent strong outings in Texas and his ability to find success in all parts of his bag, he’s a good look for Top 40!