As we wrap up the 2024 PGA Tour schedule, this is the last event for the year. The last article was the last full tour event, and this weekend we get the yearly Hero World Challenge. The Hero World Challenge brings 20 of the PGA’s top golfers together for a no-cut event.
We typically see the cream of the crop rise to the top in these events and I would not be shocked if Scottie Sheffler walks away with another win. Considering we cannot target my specialty of top 20 to top 40 finishes this week, we will once again look into some matchups!
The PGA Tour returns to the Bahamas in New Providence, at Albany Golf Club. An Ernie Els design, this course is a par-72, 7,400 yards, with desert-like style features with plenty of sand pits and water features to grab your attention…and balls! Off the tee, this course does not demand too much and there is not too much danger.
What does matter is the players' approach game this week, along with how they perform around the green. This course is notorious for finding blowups around the greens and I am sure we will see some again this time around. My focus this week was on players in really good form, along with key statistics to help them navigate this course.
Nick Dunlap quietly is sitting at #11 in this field in strokes gained over their baseline average in their last 36 rounds, compared to Brian Harman's ranking of #15. Nick has gained this in impressive fashion off the tee and with his approach game. His tee to green has also been #1 in this field over those last 36 rounds.
Dunlap is climbing up the rankings, and we could see him as a top 15 player in the world. His only issue has been his putter, but over 2 of his last 3 events, he has gained 5 strokes on the field in approach, while his around the green has also been very good in 3 of his last 4 events.
Tom Kim has been up and down, down the stretch, but since the Masters Tournament he has finished top 50 in 12 of 17 events. In his last 7 events he has swapped back and forth missing the cut, to finishing T15, T50, and 2nd (two weeks ago). Coming off that 2nd place finish 2 weeks ago, he has some momentum to build on.
Kim finished 10th here 2 years ago, and he comes in as the 3rd hottest player gaining strokes over their last 36 holes, compared to their baseline average. His approach and tee to green games have been one of the strongest in this field putting him in this position. Clark finished 2nd to last in this event last year and has been off since September 15th.
Russell Henley is the 3rd best player in this field in raw strokes-gained, gaining at least 1 stroke per round in 2024, only 3 players in this field accomplished that feat this season. He also ranks #4 over his last 36 rounds in this field in strokes gained to his baseline average.
Every aspect of Henley's game, except off the tee, has been in top form this entire year. With that form I expect him to continue striking the ball cleanly, and leaving himself with easy puts. Taking him against someone with experience in this event is risky, but if Henley keeps out of danger off the tee and around the green, he has a chance to finish top 5 in this field.
My Best Bets (3):
Nick Dunlap over Brian Harman 72 Holes (+110) Bet365
Tom Kim over Wyndham Clark 72 Holes (+100) Bet365
Russell Henley over Sam Burns 72 Holes (-115) DraftKings