On the back end of a back-to-back, the Sun face the only team that didn’t play yesterday, the Mercury. After a tough and controversial loss against the Fever last night, the Sun's season continues to spiral. With the Mercury sitting near the top of the standings, this is going to be a challenging game for the Sun to set up as well. We’ll see if they can do the improbable tonight, though, as the game tips off at 7 PM ET.
Leila Lacan Out
Megan McConnell Out
Sami Whitcomb Out
The Sun can’t catch a break this season. With a record of 2-9, things can’t get much worse, as Connecticut feels left behind. They just can’t keep up in this league with their current roster, as scoring continues to climb; they can’t keep pace. That’s been their main issue throughout the season. They’re averaging only 71 points per game, which is 4 points below the next lowest and nearly 20 below New York, the leader in points per game. It’s primarily due to their lack of an outside shot. They’re shooting just under 30% from three-point range, with the Valkyrie as the only other team worse in that category. Additionally, the Sun are nearly at the bottom of every counting stat. They can’t rebound, shoot, move the ball, or create defensive opportunities. It’s been a sad, slow spiral as tempers rise on this team. We even saw those tempers boil over in an altercation with Caitlin Clark last night, where the Sun knocked Clark to the ground hard with a shove in the back. This group is not having a good time, and it’s clearly not getting better any time soon.
For the Mercury, we don’t need to talk too much about their game. They’ve been doing excellently, sitting at 8-4 with respectable numbers across the board. But even better than just having solid counting stats, they have a true star in Sabally. She has been lethal this year all over the court and has propelled this team into a real contender once again. The stark difference between what we’ve seen from the Mercury and the Sun makes it look like two completely different sports. I expect the Mercury to blast through the Sun tonight without much hesitation. My only concern for the Mercury in this game is the size Connecticut has down low. We’ve seen the Mercury struggle in a couple of games when teams can match size in the paint. With Tina Charles and Olivia Nelson-Ododa down low, they may be able to slow down the Mercury’s interior offense, but I doubt it will matter. Phoenix can spread the floor and make the Sun earn it on the other end, which, based on what we’ve seen, isn’t happening. That’s why I’m going with the Mercury moneyline, the over on 158 total points, and the -14.5 point spread for Phoenix.
Money line: PHO (-1100) / CON (+700)
Total Points: 158
Spread: -14.5 PHO (-110) / +14.5 CON (-110)
Thomas has been consistent lately. She’s been scoring in the range of 10 to 16 points for most of the season, with a few standout games early on. However, with the line set at just 12.5 points, taking the over looks promising against the Sun. They’re coming off a back-to-back against the Fever yesterday and have already been one of the weakest teams in the league. I believe we’ll see Thomas rack up a few easy points tonight and easily surpass this line.
We’ve seen Charles go off lately, consistently scoring in the 18-point range; she’s by far the Sun’s most reliable scorer at this point. The 36-year-old may be nearing the end of her career, but she clearly has enough left in the tank to put some points on the board. The only games where she fell short of this score were against either the Lynx or the Liberty, which the Mercury are well behind. Averaging 17 points a game this year already, this is an easy take.
Eight rebounds are nothing for Sabally, who is already averaging 7.9 on the season. The only games she hasn’t hit the over on this line have been blowouts where she’s sitting early. As long as Sabally is on the court for at least 25 minutes, she’s been over, or at this line. Considering the Sun hasn’t exactly been competitive, and there is a great chance Sabally can run away with this one.