Sabrina Ionescu of the New York Liberty.
Sabrina Ionescu of the New York Liberty.@nyliberty on Twitter

O'Sullivan's Sunday WNBA Picks: Sky vs Liberty, Storm vs Wings (Mabrey questionable), Mercury vs Mystics

Chicago Sky at New York Liberty, 2 pm Eastern, Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 4 pm, Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics, 6 pm.

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Seattle O’Sullivan 2022 WNBA Season so far: 52-33, +$124.58

(Wednesday: 1-0, +$7.50)

(Standing Caveat: The universe is chaotic. Life is unpredictable. Things happen. Like injuries. And COVID protocols. In following Seattle O’Sullivan’s betting advice, be advised that you should always monitor your bets during the day to make certain unforeseen things have not occurred which might change your wagering opinion. Thank you.)

Chicago Sky at New York Liberty, 2 pm Eastern

The Pick: New York +7.5 (-120), bet $9.01 to win $7.50

This isn’t so much about New York having a chance to win the game, even though they’re at home. It’s more about Chicago’s tendency to play close games. Through this season (12 games), the Sky have only had three games with a margin greater than the spread today. Even those games were only 9, 9, and 8 point spreads. And to be fair to the Liberty, after a 1-7 start, they have won four of five games. I’m not going on record saying New York has turned it around; most of those wins were against Indiana and Minnesota. But it’s not quite as bad for them as it was in May. Chicago plays up to teams, and they also play down to teams. I see them coasting here, but with less room than a cover.

Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 4 pm Eastern

The Pick: Dallas +4.5 (-114), bet $8.56 to win $7.50

I just think that right now, Dallas is better. So I’m going to take them getting 4.5 at home. Pretty simple. I think the line has moved too much due to Marina Mabrey being questionable due to COVID quarantine. On Friday, the Storm outlasted the Wings 89-88, with Breanna Stewart hitting two free throws with 6.9 seconds left. But I think that was a lesson for Seattle in how to win close games, and I think it will help them down the road. It may even help them today. The Wings are third in the league in offensive rating, and second in offensive rebound percentage. They’re on their way up; it looks like Seattle is on their way down.

Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics, 6 pm Eastern

The Pick: Washington -8 (-114), bet $5.68 to win $5

Washington taught me a lesson in their win over Minnesota on Friday. Rather, it reinforced a lesson. The WNBA is a league of tiers - and the Mystics are now in the top one. Without Brittney Griner, the Mercury are (at least) a tier below. Teams from the top tier handle their business against teams from lower tiers. Today Washington returns home to play a team that’s not too dissimilar from Minnesota - on its heels, trying to right its ship, but not there yet. The Mystics are better in every major advanced statistical category, and should be able to take care of business today.

(There are no available odds currently on Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 7 pm Eastern)

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