WNBA Playoffs Thursday: Hot O'Sullivan hopes to keep winning with Wings at Sky, Liberty at Mercury, Futures
Well, I went 5-1 to wrap up the regular season (and would’ve gone 6-0 if Minnesota hadn’t hit two relatively meaningless free throws at the end of their game with Washington, who really need to self-reflect on that, and, oh yeah, on blowing their shot at making the playoffs). So since August 31, 2021, I’ve gone 41-16.
41. And sixteen. See that second number? So low many style guides advise actually typing the number out. So, yeah.
It bears repeating: so, yeah. You’re welcome.
But everyone knows that the playoffs are where gamblers make their real money. Actually, that’s nonsense - theoretically, anyone can make their year’s nut on an exhibition game. But the playoffs are exciting anyway, even if the money doesn’t spend any better. You should be able to tell a car salesman, “I know you’re offering this sedan for $15,000. But I won $6,500 on the Liberty/Mercury playoff game. Will you take that?”
Until that wrong is rectified, we’ll just have to satisfy ourselves with the pride of knowing we performed well in the playoffs. If we do actually perform well. So here we go.
Seattle O’Sullivan so far: 137-100-1
Connecticut Sun to win WNBA Championship: +200
Minnesota Lynx to win WNBA Championship: +750
The Connecticut pick is somewhat obvious, but the Minnesota odds? That’s crazy value, right there. The Lynx have been the second-best team in the WNBA since even before the Olympic break. I can see them winning three games against anyone in a five-game series.
Dallas Wings at Chicago Sky, 8 pm Eastern
The Pick: Dallas +5.5 (-118)
Okay. Look. I know what I’ve said. And I meant it at the time. But let’s be real. Let’s face facts. 5.5 points are too much here. Dallas has won this season’s series with Chicago 2-1, including winning in Chicago on August 17. So they know they can win this game. The Sky enter the playoffs 16-16, which the last time I checked didn’t blow anyone’s doors off. The Wings are 10-6 against the spread on the road while Chicago is 4-12 ATS at home. It’s just too many points, and I still think that Dallas, when they’re right, can play with anyone. They play unafraid, especially Arike Ogunbowale, who just made first-team All-WNBA. Chicago, on the other hand, tends to coast and play down to competition. I smell an upset tonight. Except I don’t really think it’ll be an upset, as again, when they’re right, the Wings can beat anyone…
…And that’s why…
Dallas Wings to win WNBA Championship: +10000
Yes! Yes! Believe it! (shrug) I’m putting a buck on ‘em.
New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury, 10 pm Eastern
The Pick: New York +9.5 (-110)
New York doesn’t deserve to be here. They backed into the playoffs because Washington and Los Angeles couldn’t win their final games. Phoenix blew them out in their last two matchups. So why am I picking them? Because the Liberty don’t deserve to be here, and thus don’t have anything to lose. Plus, 9.5 points in a playoff game, where everything gets tighter? After a white-hot stretch in August, the Mercury have cooled off a bit of late, losing three in a row (albeit to top squads). I think they win tonight, but Diana Taurasi is still nursing a sore ankle. Even if she plays, I imagine she won’t be going top-speed. For the Liberty, it boils down to three-pointers. If they hit them, they hang. If they don’t, my pick looks dumb.