WNBA Friday: O'Sullivan has 6 plays for Dream at Sun, Liberty at Fever, Storm at Mercury, Lynx at Aces

No games yesterday. Three more days of matchups heading into the Olympic break, a nice chunk to get me back moving in the right direction.

Seattle O’Sullivan so far: 58-51-1

Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun, 7 pm EDT

The Pick: Connecticut (-1100), Atlanta +13.5 (-110)

Yup, I’m “middling” again. Atlanta has the worst defense in the league, giving up 89.1 points per game. But I’m not sure that Connecticut will be able to take that much advantage, given their offense scores the third-fewest points per game (79.6). The Dream has shown the ability to score on just about anyone, and they turn the ball over only 12.7 times per game, third-best in the WNBA. They play hard against good teams and are 5-3 against the spread on the road. The Sun have too much power, but I think it’ll be close.

New York Liberty at Indiana Fever, 7 pm EDT

The Pick: Indiana +3.5 (-110)

Indiana broke their lo-ong losing streak against the Connecticut Sun last week, and overall, still play tougher at home: 5-5 against the spread there. It’s all about the three-pointer for the Liberty - they make 10.8 per game, tops in the WNBA. But I still feel it’s a “feast or famine” with that shot for them. The Fever’s defense is no longer the worst in the league, and as always, one has to respect a home dog.

Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury, 9 pm EDT

The Pick: Seattle (-300), Phoenix +7 (-110)

I’m gonna get this “middle” if it kills me. Phoenix is riding high off a huge, overtime victory against the Aces that has given them confidence as well as cost me money. I think that’s gonna cut both ways, though. The Storm have won three in a row, all pretty close games, and I think their starting five is just stronger than the Mercury’s. Seattle’s offensive rating is second in the league; Phoenix’s is eighth. The Storm’s defensive rating is fourth, the Mercury’s ninth. I don’t think Phoenix’s win over Las Vegas means they’ve entered the top tier.

Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces, 10:30 pm EDT

The Pick: Minnesota +6.5 (-115)

In their last matchup, Minnesota pulled off a surprising OT win over Las Vegas, 90-89. True, that was at Minnesota, but the Lynx won’t be afraid tonight. With Sylvia Fowles, they also have someone who matches up with Ace Liz Cambage. The Lynx have won five in a row, and the Aces just suffered a loss which, more importantly, was another overtime game. This is a dogfight, which means it’ll be close, which means take the points.