Pablo Carreno Busta, playing in Turkey, plays today in Germany.
Pablo Carreno Busta, playing in Turkey, plays today in Germany.|Turkish Airlines Antalya Open

Hamburg tennis Friday quarters: Abrams picks Chardy vs Basilashvili, Thiem vs Rublev, Zverev vs. Krajinovic, Carreno Busta vs. Fognini

Matches start at 5:30 am EDT.

Neal Abrams

Neal Abrams

Hamburg European Open

Hamburg, Germany

Friday, July 26, 2019

Men’s Quarters

Jeremy Chardy over Nikoloz Basilashvili

I wrote before his Round of 16 match that Nikoloz Basilashvili was overrated, and I continue to maintain that fact. After winning that match against Juan Ignacio Londero, Basilashvili has finally gotten his winning percentage to .500 for the year, at 16-16, but I think he’ll fall right back down below that number. He’s played Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, one of many really good Europeans (count Spain and France with the most) twice, and has yet to win a set. I don’t know if Chardy can win in two, but I’d be surprised if the Frenchman didn’t move on to the semis.

Dominic Thiem over Andrey Rublev

Thiem has looked like the dominant clay courter that we expect to see, here in Germany. He has rolled over both Cuevas and Fucsovics (an easy winner over hometown hero Philip Kohlschreiber) without losing a set. He looks prime to add this trophy to his ever-growing list of hardware and prepare himself for the hard courts that come next. Rublev has played well and will take away two good wins, over both Cristian Garin, a fine clay courter, and Casper Ruud, that one in three sets, to set up this quarterfinal match. Unfortunately for the Russian, though, Thiem is just a better player and should have little trouble moving on.

Sascha Zverev over Filip Krajinovic

Zverev seems to be having one of his good weeks. He has all the talent in the world, and I really think that along with Stefanos Tsitsipas, he represents the future of the ATP Tour, but he has too many bad losses at this point in his career. When you are a Top Five or Six player, you should dominate those outside of the Top 15, and Zverev just doesn’t do that. He seems to be able to get “up” for playing the very top players, but is not as excited, nor does he show the same kind of desire when he plays opponents he’s supposed to beat. Krajinovic could fall into that category, if only he was a bit better. The Serbian is 19-9 for the year, which is awfully good, but he doesn’t perform well against the very best players. While he has wins over Tiafoe, Albot, Seppi, Coric, Herbert (twice), Wawrinka, Medvedev, Goffin (twice), and Cecchinatto, he has loses against top-tier players Nadal, Federer, and Tsitsipas, none of which represents a bad loss. But if you’re going up against one of the Top Five, you better be able to compete against that level. Krajinovic hasn’t shown that he can….yet.

Pablo Carreno Busta over Fabio Fognini

Fabio Fognini is the 10th ranked tennis player in the world, and Pablo Carreno Busta is only ranked No. 59. Additionally Fognini is now 20-13 this year, while Carreno Busta is struggling to get to a .500 winning percentage, stuck at just 9-11. BUT, Carreno Busta is 6-0, lifetime, against Fognini, and that mean’s everything. If you’re betting here, look at the odds on this one. If Fognini is the favorite, go with Carreno Busta and prepare to spend a little extra cash.

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