Tennis: Abrams picks the Miami Open Women’s Final - Barty vs. Pliskova

Miami Open
Women’s Final

Ash Barty over Karolina Pliskova
Karolina Pliskova simply dominated Simona Halep Thursday night, not finishing her match until deep into the morning hours. Halep raced out to a 5-3 lead and Pliskova, like a basketball team, regrouped, recovered, and renewed an assault on the Romanian, taking nine out of the next ten games to get her to 7-5, 5-1. Rain ensued, and the players played the waiting game until the courts were dried for Halep’s one last gasp. It came after 1:00 a.m. and it was unsuccessful. Halep held serve and then Pliskova held her serve too, which vaulted her into the finals with a decisive 7-5, 6-2 victory.

Pliskova hit her groundstrokes hard and deep and succeeded in three ways: She served beautifully and dominated the games on her serve, she was able to outhit Halep because of her long reach with hard, primarily flat groundies, and when available, she found herself at net for some easy put-away volleys because of outmaneuvering the second seed. All in all, it was a pretty significant beat-down. Halep never gives in, and even while she was enduring her beating, she showed the spirit with which her game thrives on. But last night was to belong to Pliskova, as the 5th seed looked every bit a champion.

Ash Barty, for her part, was simply more dominant in her semi-final win over Anett Kontaveit. Kontaveit made more unforced errors and had fewer winners than Barty, and Barty used her serve to complete advantage in the straight set drubbing she handed her Estonian opponent. Barty has developed a complete all-court game since she has come back on Tour from her 18-month hiatus playing cricket in Australia. She proudly displays a wonderful backhand slice that she uses to both fend off strong cross-court backhands from righties, and to dink her opponents as she deftly changes shot depth. She possesses a consistently strong forehand that she can block, chip, but mostly blast with topspin. She seems really comfortable at net volleying, moving, and hitting overheads, although I’ll admit that some of her overheads can be a bit of an adventure. And she relies on a strong, consistent serve that generally allows her to start her points off at an advantage, even if it rarely results in an ace or a winning shot on its own. She showcased all of her game in her semi-final victory over Kontaveit, who looked a bit slower than she had earlier in the tournament.

I expect this match to be an exciting contrast in styles. Pliskova will try to take advantage of her own penetrating groundstrokes which she hopes will keep Barty far behind the baseline, and Barty will endeavor to answer with counter-punches that provide shots with great angles, differing spins, and a variety of depths. Ultimately, I think it will be Barty’s ability to move Pliskova around the court that will spell the difference here. Pliskova feels most comfortable patrolling the baseline while she unleashes bomb after bomb from the ground. Where she gets herself into trouble, in my opinion, is when she tries to get fancy and hit behind her opponent instead of just running her ragged, from corner to corner. Yes, this strategy provides Pliskova with opportunities to hit some winners, but seems to ignore the long-term benefit for a short-term gain.

Barty is too quick, too fast, and too athletic to allow that strategy to foil her. The Aussie has great wheels, and those wheels always seem to position her in the right position to hit a balanced, well-planned shot. If Pliskova would simply hit sideline to sideline and get Barty running back and forth, I think she could take home this title. But she doesn’t seem to play that game, and Barty will make her pay. Barty should dominate her serves, if she delivers like she did Thursday night, and that should allow her to concentrate on breaking Pliskova’s strong, flat deliveries. I like Barty to win her biggest title yet, and make her Top Ten presence felt on the WTA Tour.