Feinting the Line Wednesday: Levante vs Sevilla, Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg, Bremen vs Mainz, Lyon vs Monaco, more
Levante v. Sevilla, 1 pm ET, Stuttgart v. Wolfsburg, 2:30 pm, Hoffenheim v. Borussia Monchengladbach, 2:30 pm, Werder Bremen v. Mainz, 2:30 pm, Deportivo Alaves v Villarreal, 3 pm, Lyon v Monaco, 3pm.
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Away wins selections comprise our entire Wednesday slate which is chalked full of value. 9 bets, 9 lines where we beat the closing line. This is the only short-term result FtL takes solace in. The work is done, let us hope the value finds the results today as it will over time.
Levante v. Sevilla | La Liga | 1:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Sevilla -1 @ +190 | .15u
THE PLAY: Sevilla win to nil @ +230 | .25u
Our stakes are small, but we garner solid value with $.68 (or .68u) of closing line value accumulated on the alternate line and $.20 (or .2u) on the shutout win proposition. Best available prices are +122 and +210 at Pinnacle and Bovada, respectively.
Levante recently suffered a demoralizing 1-5 defeat at the hands of Unai Emery’s scorching Yellow Submarines. Paco Lopez’ squad has failed to net in four of its previous five league losses occurring in the past two months. Sevilla enters the contest with only 25 goals conceded in the Spanish top-flight (3rd top) while Levante’s recent outputs involve three goals in six game attempts.
Stuttgart v. Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 2:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg -1 @ +275| .4u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg win to nil @ +375| .35u
Oliver Glasner’s Wolves will be foaming at the mouth to avenge its past two outings: losses to Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern Munich. Wolfsburg positions to maximize its points output ahead of its blockbuster tie with current Bundesliga 5th place spot and Champions League challenger, Borussia Dortmund, at the weekend. Recency bias spurred by Wolfsburg’s recent tough and somewhat unlucky results likely opened our value window in this contest.
Our perceived value opportunity has been confirmed in the form of line movement. The Wolfsburg alternate line price has shortened to a best available of +199, so we claim a staggering $.76 (or .76u) of closing line value on that play. The shutout win proposition has shortened to a best available price of +310. Hence, we claim a whopping (or .65u) of closing line value on the Wolfsburg win to nil bet.
Tactically, the double pivot of Xaver Schlager and Maximilian Arnold supply the structure and wit which are most likely to propel our desired outcome. Ridle Baku’s pace down the right wing could be crucial to exposing the Stuttgart contingent while Wout Weghort aims to hunt down any finishing opportunity. Conversely, the Wolfsburg right side must be ever aware of Tanguy Coulibaly who imprints his pace into most contests.
At the time we selected, a ML price of +135 was available, implying a desired outcome probability of 42.6%. However, we estimate Wolfsburg wins similarly situated contests between 50% - 51.55% of the times. Consequently, we approximate a value edge of 7.4% - 8.95% on our original selections and still endorse a lower-staked late plus money take on Wolfsburg. The ML is available for +105 right now on Bovada.
Hoffenheim v. Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga | 2:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Borussia Monchengladbach -1 @ +275 | .45u
THE PLAY: Borussia Monchengladbach -1 @ +270 | .3u
Despite looking like a sinking ship following the announcement that Marco Rose would follow the German lame-duck tradition by leading the side until the end of the season then departing for perceived greener pastures, the Colts has returned to form in the past month with three wins and one loss. The 4-0 drubbing of Eintracht Frankfurt half a week ago in the quack battle was especially impressive.
We look to Denis Zakaria to secure the midfield from the off to boost our desired probability outcome.
We garner significant closing line value on the alternate line selection as the best available price has shortened to +240 at 888sport. Accordingly, we garner $.35 (or .35u) on the selection. Extreme price variation exists across markets.
Although a ML of +160 (available at our selection time) suggests a probability of 38.5% for our desired outcome, our projections indicate Marco Rose’s contingent collects all three points from similar contests at a rate 5.75% - 6.35% higher than that price suggests. We estimate Borussia Monchengladbach wins ilk-natured matches at a clip between 44.25% - 44.85%. These projections also indicate that value has subsided on the play leaving no opportunity for late takers.
Werder Bremen v. Mainz | Bundesliga | 2:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Mainz -1 @ +400 | .275u
Our only regret here is the size of the stake. We accumulate a massive $1.00 (or 1u) of closing line value on the alternate line selection with the best available Mainz price having shortened to +300 at 888sport.
Deportivo Alaves v. Villarreal | La Liga | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Villarreal -1 @ +206 | .6u
Total form spot here. Market prices have not adjusted to the scathing goal-scoring form of Unai Emery’s men in the business end of the 2020-2021 campaign. Francis Coquelin has returned to the squad to bolster midfield depth and encourage further healthy squad rotation.
This is an average line of the two stakes we posted for Villarreal. We gain significant closing line value of $.31 (or .31u) as the Villarreal alternate line price has shortened to a best available of +175 at 888sport.
Lyon v. Monaco | Coupe de France | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Monaco ML @ +235 | .625u
A blockbuster Coupe de France Quarter-final will see Monaco travel to the Groupama Stadium on Wednesday afternoon.
It is another opportunity for us to kick back and enjoy the brilliance of wonder-boy Aurelien Tchoumaeni, who, once again, dropped jaws across France with his masterclass against Bordeaux at the weekend. Our preferred XI also involves the services of Wissam Ben Yedder, Kevin Volland, Youssouf Fofana, and Aleksandr Golovin.
The best available ML price has shortened to +208 available at Bovada. Accordingly, we claim $.27 (or .27u) of closing line value on the Monaco win bet. Decent price variation exists across markets. A ML price of +235 implies a probability of 29.9% for a Monaco victory; however, we estimate Monaco wins similarly poised matches at a 31.6% - 35.65% clip. Accordingly, we approximate a value edge of 1.7% -5.75%.
For further rational on the play, visit our audio version.
Sevilla -1 @ +190| .15u
Sevilla win to nil @ +230 | .25u
Wolfsburg -1 @ +275| .4u
Wolfsburg win to nil @ +375| .35u
Borussia Monchengladbach -1 @ +275 | .45u
Borussia Monchengladbach -1 @ +270 | .3u
Mainz -1 @ +400 | .275u
Villarreal -1 @ +206 | .6u
Monaco ML @ +235 | .625u
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