Feinting the Line Saturday: Newcastle vs West Ham, 'Gladbach vs Frankfurt, Union Berlin vs Stuttgart, Wolverhampton vs Sheffield
Newcastle v. West Ham, Premier League, 7:30 am ET; Monchengladbach v. Frankfurt , Bundesliga, 9:30;; Union Berlin v. Stuttgart, Bundesliga, 9:30; Wolverhampton v. Sheffield, Premier League, 3:15 pm.
If you plan on tailing, please do so with responsibility and caution. Before you tail, please read our ntroduction post on Bettors Insider describing who we are, our history, and our betting style. Additionally, check out our 6-month results report, as well as @FeintingtheLine on Twitter for all content. Best of luck with all your plays.
Our Saturday selections amount to slightly negative weighted average closing line value on the day as we garner positive closing line value on 1u risked of selections and negative closing line value on 2.2u risked of selections. Unfortunate injury luck accounts for all lost value as described below. If you read and follow consistently, you will know our selections are overwhelmingly plus expected value and plus closing line value. At last calculation (end of March) over 60% of plays post-January were positive closing line value.
Newcastle v. West Ham | Premier League | 7:30 am ET
THE PLAY: West Ham ML @ -101 | .7u
THE PLAY: West Ham -1 @ +196 | .5u
THE PLAY: West Ham win to nil @ +235 | .3u
Michail Antonio’s hamstring (injury post-bet) accounts for our price woes on these selections. The West Ham ML bet is available for $.10 (or .1u) cheaper, universally, than we took while the alternate line and shutout win prices have slipped between $.20 (or .2u) and $.30 (or .3u).
Arthur Masuaku’s coverage and quality of performance in the middle of the park will likely be the key deciding factor in this contest in lieu of Declan Rice’s presence. While the Hammers has been leaky recently at the back, we count on Jesse Lingard’s sharp goal scoring form to boost the Hammers Champions League dreams.
While Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin return to provide threatening line-breaking and goal-making pace for the Magpies, our projections suggest the current 2x win markets undervalue the Hammers despite the absentees.
Borussia Monchengladbach v. Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Eintracht Frankfurt ML @ +210 | .5u
THE PLAY: Eintracht Frankfurt -1 @ +370 | .5u
Yes, Adi Hutter is now a lame-duck coach via his own announcement. Better yet, he will take over the team we bet against, who, ironically, is in the same position with headman Marco Rose who is set to manage Borussia Dortmund immediately following the season. What a shite German tradition.
Nevertheless, we must trust Hutter, having guided the talents of Andre Silva, Filip Kostic, and company to a current top four place with a prospective Champions League bid looming large.
We have garnered substantial closing line value on the play. Best prices available reside at MarathonBet and 888sport, respectively at time of writing. With current prices having shortened to +170 and +325, respectively, we claim $.40 (or .4u) of closing line value on the ML play and $.45 (or .45u) of closing line value on the alternate line play. Increasing and significant price variation exists across markets.
Comparative goal difference as well as comparative expected goals difference categories suggest Frankfurt should be favored in the contest.
A ML price of +210 suggests an implied probability of 32.3%; however, we estimate Eintracht Frankfurt gathers three points from similarly situated matches between 37.45% - 38.55% of the time. Accordingly, we calculate an approximate value edge of 5.15% - 6.25%.
Union Berlin v. Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Stuttgart PK @ +122 | .5u
THE PLAY: Stuttgart -1 @ +475 | .2u
With late absentee-notes for Stuttgart’s front men, we relinquish some value on these picks and our desired outcome probability is significantly affected. Both prices have slipped against our cause by about $.13 (or .13u) and $.35 (or .35u), respectively, because of the late scratches. Stay away, cash out, or hedge out if you can here. As always, we ride with the play for our official records since we tipped it. This injury risk is accounted for when we make bets.
The value we gain from playing early exponentially exceeds the occasional lost value from unlucky injuries or unanticipated circumstances that send line movement against our favor when you calculate the expected value over a volume of our selections. This is especially true considering that over time, statistically, we are just as likely to realize the benefit of good injury luck as the risk of bad injury luck on plays that involve our early staking method.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Sheffield United | Premier League | 3:15 pm ET
THE PLAY: Wolves win to nil @ +140 | .5u
We have garnered significant closing line value and profit this season fading Sheffield United. We have backed the shutout win proposition of the Blades’ opposition many a time.
Although this price is still widely available on the market, Wolves form has improved drastically in the past few weeks. Six of Wolves ten wins this campaign have seen the opposition goalless. Wolves carries average concession rate but has climbed up the league leaderboards in the category in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Sheffield holds the worst comparative goal difference record, expected comparative goal difference, and goal rate in the English top-flight. Chris Wilder’s Blades has netted on 17 occasions in 31 appearances this campaign.
West Ham ML @ -101 | .7u
West Ham -1 @ +196 | .5u
West Ham win to nil @ +235 | .3u
Eintracht Frankfurt ML @ +210 | .5u
Eintracht Frankfurt -1 @ +370 | .5u
Stuttgart PK @ +122 | .5u
Stuttgart -1 @ +475 | .2u
Wolves win to nil @ +140 | .5u
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