Feinting the Line Saturday Soccer Picks: Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg, Liverpool vs Aston Villa, Parma vs AC Milan
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Eintracht Frankfurt v. Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg PK @ +139 | .3u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg ML @ +225 | .1u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg win to nil @ +510 | .1u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg -1 @ +500 | .1u
Followers will know that much of the value we have produced this term derives from the away wins related markets. Here, we see no exception.
Oliver Glasner’s Wolves visits the Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt for a heavy weight Bundesliga bout between 3rd and 4th placed sides on Saturday morning.
While Frankfurt scores at a higher rate, Wolfsburg boasts a better concession record. In fact, Wolfsburg’s concession rate tops the Bundesliga level on par with Rb Leipzig. Additionally, Wolfsburg enters the contest +6 in comparative goal difference.
We have accumulated significant closing line value on all these selections. The best available draw no bet price has shortened to +116 at MarathonBet. Consequently, we claim $.23 (or .23u) of closing line value on the +0 selection. The ML has shortened to a best available price of +200, so we claim $.25 (or .25u) of closing line value for the ML play.
The alternate line is available at 888sport at +440 while the shutout win proposition provides more value for late takers at Bovada at +475. Therefore, we garner $.70 (or .7u) and $.35 (or .35u) of closing line value on our latter selections, respectively.
The selections provide combined closing line value of $1.53 (or 1.53u) which confirms our value edge projections. We estimate Wolfsburg wins similarly situated matches at a 34.8% - 36.1% clip. Considering an implied probability of 30.8% based on a ML price of +225, we approximate a value edge of 4% - 5.3%.
We stake heavier on the draw no bet because of the tendency for these teams to draw when contesting top half opposition.
Liverpool v. Aston Villa | Premier League | 10 am ET
THE PLAY: Aston Villa PK @ +600 | .65u
Despite confirmation breaking twelve hours ago that Captain Jack Grealish will miss out on the weekend’s trip to Anfield, we have sustained major closing line value on this value selection.
The combination of Grealish’s absence, Klopp’s unanticipated insistence to battle for top four in the Premier League instead of resting players and prioritizing European competition, and stale prices indicate that value opportunity has long subsided leaving no pick for late players here.
The early bird snatches the value, can Dean Smith produce a high odds win for the kids?
We gain an incredible $2.00 (or 2u) of closing line value on the draw no bet play having shortened to a best available price of +400 at 888sport.
Parma Calcio v. AC Milan | Serie A | Noon
THE PLAY: AC Milan -1 @ +131 | .5u
While we hope to gain late closing line value on this play, we are not bothered if we do not. We just posted the play to our Twitter page hours ago meaning this is more of a spot where we perceive expected value based on an inflated line.
AC Milan is available at a ML price of -135 at MarathonBet, implying a win probability of 57.4% for the Rossoneri; however, we estimate Stefano Pioli’s Red and Blacks collects three points from 60.25% - 61.3% of ilk-natured contests. Accordingly, we approximate a value edge of 2.85% - 3.9% for our selection.
A factor contributing to possible line inflation includes Milan winning just one of its prior five games in all competitions, but Milan has faced enhanced competition over the period against England’s second-best in Manchester United and fellow top four Italian side, Napoli. Additionally, some key players are now available for ninety minutes after fitness concerns in the prior matches. Crucially, Ismael Bennacer and Franck Kessie are in line to control the double pivot in the middle of the park to boost our desired probability outcome while Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ante Rebic lead the line.
THE PLAYS
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg PK @ +139 | .3u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg ML @ +225 | .1u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg win to nil @ +510 | .1u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg -1 @ +500 | .1u
THE PLAY: Aston Villa PK @ +600 | .65u
THE PLAY: AC Milan -1 @ +131 | .5u
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