Feinting the Line Thursday Europa League Picks: Granada vs Manchester United, Dinamo Zagreb vs Villarreal
If you plan on tailing, please do so with responsibility and caution. Before you tail, please read our ntroduction post on Bettors Insider describing who we are, our history, and our betting style. Additionally, check out our 6-month results report, as well as @FeintingtheLine on Twitter for all content. Best of luck with all your plays.
Granada v. Manchester United | Europa League | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Manchester United win to nil @ +180 | .55u
THE PLAY: Manchester United -1 @ +143 | .45u
We turn to our heavily staked away wins selections to provide value for today’s European slate. Our staking method is an equation of confidence in desired results outcome as well as perceived value and expected value calculations.
First up, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Red Devils visit Spain. United handled a much more threatening La Liga side, Real Sociedad, two rounds ago in European play. The physicality of the Premier League has generally proved too formidable in European play for the Spanish sides who rest outside the top four in the Spanish top-flight.
We expect no difference here with the availability of Paul Pogba boosting our desired outcome. With Marcus Rashford not entering on full fitness, could Reds fans clamoring finally produce a start for the young and talented Amad Diallo?
We have garnered a significant $.35 (or .35u) of closing line value on our shutout win proposition as prices have shortened to +145 available at Bovada. We have gained $.43 (or .43u) of closing line value on the alternate line with best price available for what is now the straight play of Manchester United -1 at even at 888sport and MarathonBet.
The spots provide combined closing line value of $.78 (or .78u).
We estimate Manchester United collects three points from similar matches between 62.95% - 66.1% of the time. Considering we played when the ML price of -145 was available, we consequently estimate a value edge of 3.75% - 6.9% for our selections.
Dinamo Zagreb v. Villarreal | Europa League | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Villarreal ML @ +135 | .5u
THE PLAY: Villarreal -1 @ +279 | .7u
Next, we turn to Russia. Villarreal has oft-been a reliable source for us in terms of results and value propositions in both European and league spots. Can the Europa King, Unai Emery, treat us to another value-filled result?
El Submarino Amarillo employs a decisive and experienced midfield of Etienne Capou, Daniel Parejo, and Manuel Trigueros. This is an area of the pitch where Emery’s Yellow Submarines must exploit its playmaking advantage. We prefer Gerard Moreno combining with Paco Alcacer and Samuel Chukwueze from the off in a bid to boost our desired probability outcome; however, Emery’s attacking selection is never straightforward. Carlos Bacca has gotten the preferred nod from Emery recently, so he may be in line for another start which would not cause concern to our play.
We estimate Villareal wins 46.75% - 49.8% of similarly situated matches. Accordingly, we calculate an approximate value edge of 4.15% - 7.2%.
Our value calculations are confirmed by closing line value accrued in our favor. We have managed a staggering $.41 (or .41u) of closing line value on the ML and $.89 (or .89u) of closing line value on the alternate line bet. Prices have shortened to best available of -106 at MarathonBet and +190 at Pinnacle, respectively.
We claim combined closing line value of $1.30 (or 1.3u) for these selections.
Manchester United win to nil @ +180 | .55u
Manchester United -1 @ +143 | .45u
Villarreal ML @ +135 | .5u
Villarreal -1 @ +279 | .7u
*To stay abreast on updates to plays, closing line value updates, results spreadsheets, and all Feinting the Line content, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter.