Feinting the Line Wednesday Soccer Picks: Juventus vs Napoli, Bayern Munich vs PSG, Porto vs Chelsea
Juventus v. Napoli, Serie A, 12:45 pm ET; Bayern Munich v. Paris Saint-Germain, UEFA Champions League, 3 pm ET; Porto v. Chelsea, UEFA Champions League, 3 pm ET.
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Juventus v. Napoli | Serie A | 12:45 pm ET
THE PLAY: Napoli PK @ +192 | .3u
THE PLAY: Napoli -1 @ +730 | .3u
Cristiano Ronaldo’s ailing Juventus hosts Gli Azzurri in a contest that determines who controls next season’s Champions League destiny as a potential winner takes sole claim to 4th spot in Serie A. Reports suggest Andrea Pirlo may be coaching for his job despite suggestions from Gab Marcotti and the Bianconeri’s hierarchy that Pirlo is the long-term plan.
Piotr Zielinski’s creativity returns for The Blues, boosting our desired probability outcome. Gennaro Gattuso can also call on Victor Osimhen’s services. His speed may be an option off the bench, but Napoli will have an opportunity to exploit areas in behind the Juventus defense. To this end, Lorenzo Insigne’s performance will be crucial to our prospects.
We have managed marginal closing line value of $.30 (or .3u) on the alternate line which is now available at +700 at 888sport. The draw no bet price is available for marginally more expensive than we took.
While a ML of +330 (available at time we chose selections) suggests a 23.3% probability for our desired outcome, we estimate Napoli wins similarly situated contests at a 26.15% - 27.5% clip. Accordingly, we perceive a value edge of approximately 2.85% - 4.2% on the selection.
Bayern Munich v. Paris Saint-Germain | UEFA Champions League | 3 pm ET
THE PLAY: Paris Saint-Germain PK @ +270 | .3u
THE PLAY: Paris Saint-Germain -1 @ +950 | .3u
Closing line value speaks for itself.
We do not expect PSG to win this game, especially in the marked absence of Marco Veratti; however, our selections have proved valuable, nonetheless, with prices plummeting.
Some of the price movement has to do with the absence of Robert Lewandowski, but prices were cratering before the news broke, signifying true value on PSG before the Veratti news. The midfield miss dampens our expected probability outcome significantly and value has certainly subsided at this point. The Bayern Munich alternate line, currently priced at +185 is probably a decent value opportunity for late players considering it is likely whoever wins this game wins by more than a goal.
Our best chance is for Kylian Mbappe and company to exploit defensive fragilities with direct pace in behind. Although the current Champions of the world will win the Bundesliga this campaign, Bayern has proven beatable at the back.
Without further delay, we have accumulated an incredible $.90 (or .9u) of closing line value on the PK price which is now available at Pinnacle at +180 and a whopping $3.5 (or 3.5u) of closing line value on the alternate line play which is now available at 888sport at +600.
You read that right: a combined $4.40 (or 4.4u) of closing line value for our selections here.
Porto v. Chelsea | UEFA Champions League | 3 pm ET
THE PLAY: Chelsea -1 @ +205 | .25u
THE PLAY: Chelsea win to nil @ +226 | .35u
Thiago Silva’s red card saw Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea suffer a shock defeat to relegation-threatened (probably relegation-bound) West Brom in the Premier League midweek.
Ngolo Kante’s absence hinders our desired outcome probability, but we have, nonetheless, garnered significant closing line value on these bets.
The Chelsea alternate line price has shortened to +152. Consequently, we claim $.53 (or.53u) of closing line value. The shutout win proposition has shortened to +163 (available at bet365 and 888sport), so we claim $.63 (or .63u) of closing line value there.
Although we accumulate $1.16 (or 1.16u) of combined closing line value, I would certainly not recommend this selection for late players considering the Kante absence.
Once again, away wins provide our value spots.
Napoli PK @ +192 | .3u
Napoli -1 @ +730 | .3u
Paris Saint-Germain PK @ +270 | .3u
Paris Saint-Germain -1 @ +950 | .3u
Chelsea -1 @ +205 | .25u
Chelsea win to nil @ +226 | .35u
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