Wednesday Soccer: Feinting the Line picks UEFA World Cup qualifiers – France v Ukraine, Belgium v Wales, more
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France v. Ukraine | UEFA World Cup Qualifier | 3:45 pm ET
(3.25.21) Spain v. Greece | UEFA World Cup Qualifier | 3:45 pm ET
THE PLAY: Parlay France -1 & Spain -1 @ -109 | .92u
We have managed considerable closing line value on this play with $1.07 (or 1.07u) accumulated on the France parlay piece. While we took at -178 on the France leg and -448 on the Spain selection, best prices available reside at Bovada at -275 and -450, respectively.
We had gained significant closing line value on the Spain selection, but Gerard Moreno’s unfortunate late news injury absence dampers our cause slightly. However, we avoid disaster with the price levelling to where we originally took for this parlay leg. Let us pray Luis Enrique names a preferred XI with Thiago and Rodri starting alongside either Pedri, Llorente, or Koke in the middle of the park. I know Busquets inevitably cracks Enrique’s XI, but a guy can hope right?
Team selection may be too tall of an ask considering Enrique willingly left Adama Traore’s services at bay in England when the Spanish contingent evidently lacks wing pace in the injury absence of star Ansu Fati. Sergio Ramos’ presence will be huge in getting us across the line.
We back the World Champions. It was so tempting to play France straight up; the early -1.5 line or -1.25 line was probably the best value play (with hindsight benefit of line movement knowledge).
Belgium v. Wales | UEFA World Cup Qualifier | 3:45 pm ET
(3.28.21) Georgia v. Spain | UEFA World Cup Qualifier | 12:00 pm ET
(3.28.21) Albania v. England | UEFA World Cup Qualifier | 12:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Parlay Belgium -1 & Spain -1 & England -1 @ +172 | .35u
We recently added this parlay, so we have not had opportunity for closing line value. However, we expect significant closing line value to be accrued for the Spanish match.
If you would rather play straight, Belgium -1.5 at plus money provides solid value (risk a similar amount). With news of Aaron Ramsey and Ben Davies withdrawals, two key cogs are absent for the Welsh contingent. Significantly, Ramsey provides the creative spark for the Welshmen.
The parlay pieces are available at Bovada with prices at -210, -220, and -370, respectively.
Slovenia v. Croatia | UEFA World Cup Qualifier | 3:45 pm ET
THE PLAY: Croatia -1 @ +160 | .45u
Highest current price for this alternate line play exists at Pinnacle at +149. Consequently, we have gained a marginal $.11 or (.11u) of closing line value. We expect even more value accumulated before kickoff with high price variation across markets for the bet.
Parlay: France -1 & Spain -1 @ -109 | .92u
Parlay: Belgium -1 & Spain -1 & England -1 @ +172 | .35u
Croatia -1 @ +160 | .45u
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