Thursday Europa League: Feinting the Line picks Dynamo Kyiv v. Villarreal; Ajax v. Young Boys, more
All Europa League games 12:55 pm EST: Dynamo Kyiv v. Villarreal; Ajax v. Young Boys, Slavia Praha v. Rangers, Manchester United v. AC Milan
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Dynamo Kyiv v. Villarreal | Europa League | 12:55 pm ET
THE PLAY: Villarreal ML @ +101 | .5u
THE PLAY: Villarreal -1 @ +205 | .5u
Europa League whisperer Unai Emery’s Villareal visits Kiev, Ukraine on the back of two consecutive league losses. Bookmakers’ odds could be too aggressively influenced by recent results providing value opportunity. While we had gained respectable early line movement in our favor prior to the latest La Liga defeat, that loss combined with injury to Ruben Pena sent lines in the opposite direction. At time of writing, the lines for these plays are available within ten points in most markets.
This game presents a solid value opportunity for late players at these prices. Villarreal possesses a deep roster in terms of talent options for a Europa League side. While Emery still could do anything with a wide arrangement of lineup combinations available, multiple local reports suggest Samuel Chukwueze could be handed a start on the wing with ace Paco Alcacer influencing the attack from the off. Despite Francis Coquelin’s absence, ‘Danny’ Parejo and Etienne Capoue should be able sure up the middle of the park. Oddsmakers could have also adjusted lines too heavily based on injuries by way of not fully accounting for the squad depth of the La Liga outfit.
We estimate Villarreal collects three points from similar matches between 2.75% - 3.8% more often than a coin flip rate. Accordingly, a ML price of +101 provides substantial value considering an implied probability of 49.8%.
Generally, we have seen value opportunities with road contestants in European contests. Oddsmakers seem to be overvaluing home field advantage in the absence of fans. The Olympiyskiy will be empty and lacking the support of the home fan contingent on Thursday.
Ajax v. Young Boys | Europa League | 12:55 pm ET
THE PLAY: Ajax/Young Boys o2.5 @ -125| .6u
Considering the type of play and line range, we have garnered a massively significant $.42 (or .42u) of closing line value on this over play. Best price available now sits at -167 at 888sport with value having been exploited.
Slavia Praha v. Rangers | Europa League | 12:55 pm ET
THE PLAY: Rangers -1 @ +430 | .5u
Again, we hope the lack of fans (100 Slavia Prague medical staff said to be in attendance) benefits the away side’s desired result outcome. We believe Rangers plays may be undervalued in Vegas for this reason. As of writing this line is available at 888sport at +480, so this is another great opportunity for late players. Decent price variation exists on this market and once again we are unlucky with a few late news absences having sent the price against us slightly here with Steven Gerrard out a choice or two that we believe to be inconsequential to the value presented.
Manchester United v. AC Milan | Europa League | 12:55 pm ET
THE PLAY: AC Milan PK @ +310 | .25u
THE PLAY: AC Milan -1 @ +1100 | .25u
Prices for these plays are still widely available at time of writing. Although we do not expect the sputtering Milan to win this game, we do believe these prices are too long. Hence, they provide solid value opportunities. We could basically copy and paste the European away win gibberish we just blabbered on about, but you guys are smart enough.
Although the Rossoneri has a wealth of injuries, the Reds do not come into the contest fully fit. Notably, Paul Pogba remains out while Marcus Rashford looks to be unfit unless Ole is unleashing more of his voodoo injury mind games.
Noticing a trend here? We blindly bet the away wins (maybe this will get Sean Miller off our back – ok definitely not. We will be looking forward to his United pick article and the inevitable Twitter gif to rub in our loss when the +460 dog goes down).
Villarreal ML @ +101 | .5u
Villarreal -1 @ +205 | .5u
Ajax/Young Boys o2.5 @ -125| .6u
Rangers -1 @ +430 | .5u
AC Milan PK @ +310 | .25u
AC Milan -1 @ +1100 | .25u
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