Feinting the Line Saturday Soccer picks: 3 Bundesliga matches, 1 Premier League, Udinese v Sassuolo in Serie A
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Hoffenheim v. Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg -1 @ +265 | .25u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg win to nil @ +405 | .25u
Wout Weghorst’s missed penalty midweek at the Red Bull Arena propelled Wolfsburg to crash out of the DFB Pokal at the Quarter-final stage. The sighter was about on par with the rest of our week as we have sunk below -5u since Monday.
While underperforming at certain points in the season, Hoffenheim boasts a formidable attack. Andrej Kramaric is recently back from injury, and along with Ihlas Bebou, spearheads a pacy and dangerous counter-attack. Another threat to our wager is the possible tired legs of the Wolfs with Oliver Glasner electing against almost any squad rotation in the second half of the season.
We, however, back the quality of Glasner’s men and believe oddsmakers have once again shorted Wolfsburg’s prices. We believe the Wolfsburg selections provide value despite lack of line movement on the alternate line price (as of writing) and only marginal shortening of the shutout win prop price. We estimate Wolfsburg wins similarly situated matches at a 2.25% - 4.1% higher rate than a ML price of +160 (available at the time we played) implies at a probability of 38.5%.
Can Wolfsburg complete a crucial step to what was once an unlikely bid for a Champions League spot?
Borussia Monchengladbach v. Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
Eintracht Frankfurt v. Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Parlay - Borussia Monchengladbach/Bayer Leverkusen o2.5 (-145) & Eintracht Frankfurt/Stuttgart o3 (-108) @ +225| .25u
While we have lost about $.05 (or .05u) of closing line value on the first piece of the parlay we have gained about $.40 (or .4u) of closing line value on the second piece of the parlay for a solid net gain.
If you have not yet played, we would advise to simply grab the Borussia Monchengladbach/Bayer Leverkusen o line because the price has shortened while we saw value before marginal shortening as well. In addition, the line movement on the Eintracht Frankfurt/Stuttgart o probably just about prices the play out of any value at the current price.
Sheffield United v. Southampton |Premier League | 10:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Southampton -1 @ +235 | .75u
As you may know from our picks and Twitter discord, for some reason we can not quit the Saints. Despite an up and down rollercoaster of betting emotions produced by Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men, FtL stays the course. To be honest, this week, the pick may have just as much to do with Sheffield United as Southampton. Although Sheffield United looked positive in its two recent encounters, including a win against Jack-Grealish-lacking Villains mid-week, Southampton is undervalued at this price which remains available at time of writing.
Udinese v. Sassuolo | Serie A | Noon ET
THE PLAY: Sassuolo ML @ +265 | .3u
THE PLAY: Sassuolo -1 @ +465 | .3u
We have garnered substantial closing line value on our ML plays: $.59 (or .59u). Strangely, the alternate line price remains available for a non-significantly shorter price of +459 available at 888sport and Unibet. We do see, however, high price variation among markets for the alternate line play. The next best open available market price is +415 at bet365 at time of writing.
While we estimate our desired outcome probability rests between 31.65% - 32.55%, the ML price of +265 implies a probability of 27.4% for our desired outcome. Hence, we estimate a 4.25% -5.15% value edge on the Sassuolo win bet which provides our highest value pick of the day.
Udinese, though, is no slouch of an opponent - as AC Milan found out the hard way this week. Rodrigo De Paul tends to provide the inspirational spark. Sassuolo is ten goals better by comparative goal difference in the league. Sassuolo wasted a multitude of chances to down Napoli at the week as probably deserved. Roberto De Zerbi’s talented attacking partnership of Fransesco Caputo and Domenico Berardi can seek revenge against a side who while accommodating a similar mid-table spot in Serie A ranking, test markedly below in expected goals and advanced analytics categories.
Wolfsburg -1 @ +265 | .25u
Wolfsburg win to nil @ +405 | .25u
Parlay - Borussia Monchengladbach/Bayer Leverkusen o2.5 & Eintracht Frankfurt/Stuttgart o3 @ +225| .25u
Southampton -1 @ +235 | .75u
Sassuolo ML @ +265 | .3u
Sassuolo -1 @ +465 | .3u
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